I DON'T CARE HOW HIGH GAS PRICES GO

SCOOT UPDATE 2 & COMMENTS ON OHO'S MASS TRANSIT

2009-09-08T09:27:00.010-04:00

SCOOT REPAIR UPDATE

Well, the Scoot, the LX got its tire replaced on Saturday, 08/29/09. Mike Kookoothe had moved servicing from his home back to the corner of Sylvania and McCord.

I personally took the wheel/tire assembly off the scoot (starting Friday evening with the removal of the muffler (the first step in the process followed with breaking the troque on the wheel's nut)). Then in the morning I backed the car out the garage and parked it out front. Set up a work area in the garage and took the wheel/tire assembly off the scoot.

I put and the new tire in the car -on top of the folded down seat; and headed for Mike's house (I didn't know he'd changed servicing from his home to his old sales site). Got there and his wife informed me where he was. I arrived there about 9:15.

Mike, again, was surprised (as he was last year when I had to replace a rear stoot tire) to see me sans scoot with the wheel/tire assembly. But he went right to it. I watched (and I helped when I could) as he went through the arduous mount/remount process.

I learned a lot and believed I could do this - maybe even with less ardor than Mike (if I got the right tools - real tire irons and small bead breaker).

Mike did have a portable bead breaker that did that part of the job in a snap, but to get the tire off he used two BFS's (Big F#*#!NG Screwdrivers). He kind of marred the wheel up using them, but the BFS's and lots of sweat and strong arming did the job. Then came getting the bead to pop back in place - lots of effort here too - but in 30 minutes and it finally made that audible pop. After that the tire aired up just fine - though he had no tire pressure gage and when I got home I found it to be about 55 lbs - 15 higher than the standard. I easliy adjusted that, of course.

BUT the scoot's back on the road - though I couldn't ride today - heavy rain this morning with thunder - conditions in which I will not ride.

So I took the bus (TARTA) this morning, but ended up 15 minutes late to work due to waking too late.

MASS TRANSIT IN OHIO

And speaking of mass transit - found a report from "Policy Matters Ohio on mass transit in Ohio. I read a summary and full report, released in March of this year (2009) and was shocked an angered.

Here's a quote from it:

"Ohio needs walkable, transit-oriented communities, with good transit options within and between cities—including light rail, more efficient bus service, bicycle lanes, and inter-city and regional rail—all linked together to make riding transit a convenient and affordable alternative to driving a car. Offering well-developed multi-modal transportation system will give Ohioans choice among roads, bikeways, heavy and light rail and pedestrian paths. Over half of U.S. households currently lack ready access to public transportation, which could take them off congested streets and highways. According to the Apollo Alliance, a coalition of labor, environmental, community, and business groups, for which Policy Matters is the Ohio partner, the number of miles driven by Americans in passenger vehicles grew three times faster than the U.S. population since 1980. "

Just makes me shake my head as I've been saying this since Katrina struck four years ago and even before I discovered Howard Kunstler about three years ago.

And so here the U.S. is fooling around trying to keep cars on the road with President Obama's "Cash for Clunkers" program - which is really hurting the nation. I'm glad it stopped . . . as it was such a waste of resources.

Ohioans, it looks like, just don't want to give up on the Car Culture - a sinking ship I'd say - that may even require a big world war to keep it going if the US keeps going where it's going.

OHIO WAKE-UP - MOVE TO MASS TRANSIT BEFORE IT'S TOO LATE.

Report on Mass Transit (in PDF) here:

http://www.policymattersohio.org/OhiosCommuters.htm

http://www.policymattersohio.org/pdf/OhiosCommuters2009_03.pdf

MY SCOOT - AN UPDATE TOO

2009-08-25T08:06:00.017-04:00

Last time I wrote here about my Vespa I noted that Vespa Toledo had gone out of business effective 12/23/2008.

Well . . . not quite. Mike does run the business out his house on Flamingo in Toledo now. He's kept his promise to keep servicing his customers. He'll even sell ya a scoot right from Vespa.

I've taken advantage of his servicing a couple of times this year: once for an oil change in April and one emergency call over a 'no-run' scoot. That latter was significant.

The LX, about almost two months ago, on fine early July morning - just stopped running after I went over some rather tough railroad tracks on Monroe near Douglas. I'm mean it sputtered and stalled and then all lights when dark. I got it off the road into a nearby parking lot and - nothing happened when I turned the key over and over - no power. Had to walk it half a mile (or more) to work.

Well, I had ol' Mike's Cell number. I called him mid-morning only to catch him somewhere's east of here (he's a retired Ford engineer). He sounded a little irriated that I'd call him, but he came to my work place to check it out. I checked it before he got here - including a peek at the fuses (which what I suspected was the prob. but they looked fine). Mike got here in mid-afternoon and did the same and saw what I didn't - a burned out fuse. He ran and got some; installed one and the LX fired up fine. I paid for the fuses and he left.

This happened again about the first Sunday in August: I hit a hard rut on a side street and darn didn't the same thing happen. Well, I had fuses this time. I installed one (these are the ones under the battery cover) and the LX fired up. I now take it easy when I approach RR tracks and do my best to swerve around ruts.

But now I have another problem: my rear tire, only installed in September of last year with just about 2500 miles on it picked up and was puncutered by a nail on 08/10. I know what that means: new tire.

However, I contacted Mike and he offered order one, but suggested I try to get one myself at 'Scootworks. com'. Had to go to Competition Accessories (Compacc.com) to get one as Scootworks was out of stock. Ordered on 8/14 - 2 day delivery promised. Got it in on 8/20 - 2 days late. Paid $77.00.

Well I contacted Mike when I ordered and asked if Saturday, 8/22 would be okay. He advised 'fine' I contacted him on 8/20 to advise I had the tire and wanted to firm up the time I'd show up at his house. He wrote back that the weekend was booked up and advised trying it next Saturday. We have an appointment for 8/29.

Now this disconerts me some as it'll be more than 2 weeks since the incident before I can get this fixed. I won't garage the LX until then - my intent is to get away from the car culture as far as I can - so I gotta do what I gotta do an put up with what I have to put up with. I know I'm bucking a strong tide too.

So, I'm patchin' and pumpin it (bought a manual foot pump - acutally had to buy a second - the first I worked to death - it was a off brand knock-off Walmart cheapie for $10 - got a Schwinn pump for the same price at Meijers - I'll see if it lasts) to get along.

But I do have to admit - I'm looking at getting tire irons and bead breaking tools and am watching YouTube videos on tire changes for motorcyles. I already have a motorcycle jack to take the wheel/tire assembly off - which I did last year.

Well, no one around here has such tools - I'd have to get 'em off the Net and that'd be another 2 weeks or so. So, I'll let Mike remove the old and mount the new as I don't want to go a month like this.

But I think I may have relagate him to oil changes. Ya see I didn't think this 'servicing my customers out of my house' was gonna go on for long - at least for me. I believe he may want out of servicing Vespas or (more likely) maybe away from me as I've been a real burr on his butt from the first day I got on the LX in July of 2007. And besides with Vespa dealerships spread 50 - 70 miles apart (deliberately by Piaggio I understand) it's better if I learn to 'do' my own scoot.

Do I want out of owning and riding a scooter? NO! I am intent on getting away from the 'car culture' and will go through or suffer what I must to do so, but I may have to get out and off the Vespa as necessity is forcing me to do so. I REALLY HATE going back to those arrogant bastards at Honda East in Maumee who admit they are more into the recreational vehicle business (i.e. Skidoos, ATV's, dirt bikes, Crotch Rockets and Hogs) than selling motor scooters for basic transportation - they show that they have no desire to help the Nation to get away from 'happy motoring'. So, unless I find somebody else I may have to get a scooter from them as they are the only ones who can provide some decent local (though expensive) service (and that will not happen until after I have wrung every last drop out of the Vespa - Honda East nor anyone else is likely to give me anymore than $500 trade-in value for the LX - so I want to make sure that that's what it'll be worth at the time).

However the LX has given me the impetus to do what I can for myself. It's the best way.

As for those around me - deeply steeped in the car culture - I get offers for rides in a car now or offers for fix-a-flat. I either viritually ball them out for tempting me to dump the scoot and start using a car full time again or bite my tongue so as not to say something nasty or wicked to these petit bourgeois middle class who just don't seem to want to get what's happening with our Nation. And it is they whom I hold primarily responsible for its condition - indeed I see them, the architects of suburbia, as the chief perpetrators of all our troubles. Living in a will-ful self-delusional state seems to do for them - until this all falls apart without much warning (so they'll think - as we've got warnings all around us all the time).

'Nuff for now.

I THINK I CAN . . . I THINK I CAN . . . SPEND MY WAY OUT

2009-08-25T07:53:00.005-04:00

Just had to post this morning . . .

Noticed Obama et al. have extended Cash for Clunkers to noon today (08/25/2009). Now that's not an extension for car buyers. Nope - that's for dealers. Apparently at the witching hour yesterday (8 PM in the common lingo) so many dealers tried to enter their claims that the effectivlely caused a DDOS and froze the system.

AHHH! HA! HA! HA! HAAAAAA!

It's just Obama and his bros trying to spend us out this here recession.

Crazy, crazy, crazy, crazy.

And now I've read there's gonna be cash for other clunkers too: 'frigeratrors 'n washer/dryers: they is trying to get folks to replace inefficient 'uns for energy efficient 'uns.

Good thing to do, 'xcpet - I and many other ain't got the $1,000.00 or more to drop on such things nor do many have the ablity to get loans for the same. I also hears the 'fficient 'uns really ain't so 'fficient: they 'frigerators may not cool as well and they washers - well - they uses less water, but the clothes don't come as clean. Result: folks has tah put the thang at a higher settin' and warsh fewer clothes (meanin' more loads in dah end) to git the same job done. (Might be better to use a wooden warsh tub 'n scrubboard with lye soap 'n a clothesline instead. But in that case, cute little blonde-haired blue-eyed Kayla with a B.B.S. and M.B. couldnt' hold down her job as a banker or non-proft agency head, could she?)

So, givin all that, I is standin' pat until what I has is done fer.

UPDATE - MANY MONTHS LATER

2009-08-24T09:22:00.012-04:00

The last time I posted here was December 31, 2008. I posted a rather sarcastic comic with a couple stating they weren't going out in 2009 as it was expected to be worse than 2008.

My opinion hasn't changed . . .

Well, now we're past bank bail-outs, car industry bail-outs and car industry bankruptcies and financial wizards being caught in huge Ponzi schemes with one big cheese getting sent to jail for 150 years while the rest will get away with it. Unemployment continues to soar (16% in Toledo - and that's not counting the people who've given up) and everyone's scrambling for funds.

And now we have Cash for Clunkers -the great government program by Prez Obama that was supposed to last until November 2009 closing down today at 8 PM. It's being called a great success. Feels kind of like the general of an army who after watching his soldiers get badly mauled by the enemy in battle (and nearly losing the same) declares a victory. What a joke; what a waste of time and (more importantly) what waste of resources.

And of course who can fail to mention Obamacare - ultra-conservatives and ultra-liberals are fighting it out the succesors to the Tea Party way - seen earlier this year. While Obama and company quietly tries to slip abortion coverage and euthanasia into it. We will get it or not. Hell who knows at this point.

My statement on all this? Well as anyone who reads this Blog (and I don't think anyone does - unless you are an FBI agent or some law enforcement officials trying to ferret whether I might slip a gear and end up walking into a Micky D's with a contraband AK-47 with full banana clip and firing lever set to full automatic) then you know how I look to Howard Kunstler to express what I believe.

Here's a quote from his latest Blog (Cluster Fuck Nation 08/24/2009):

"We think we're going to build "green" skyscrapers! We're too dumb to see what a contradiction in terms this is. The architects are completely uninterested in the one thing that really is "green" - traditional urban design - and most particularly the walkable neighborhood. That's just too conventional, not special enough, lacking in star power, not enough of a statement, boring, tedious, so not cutting edge! We blather about high speed rail, but you can't even get from Cleveland to Cincinnati on a regular train - and what's more amazing, NOBODY IS REALLY INTERESTED IN MAKING THIS HAPPEN. All we really care about is finding some miracle method to keep all the cars running." (caps - mine).

Oh one final note for this entry: Hurricane Season, which started June 1st, got it's real start earlier in the month with the appearance of three (3) tropical storms at the same time: Ana, Bill and Claudette. The last surprisingly formed right in the Gulf of Mexico near Alabama's and Florida's coasts. She didn't have enough time over the warm Gulf waters to ramp up to full force. She went inland and did the equivalent of mussing up somebody's hair - though 2 or 3 people got killed. Big Bill, a Cape Verdes type, just finished his run - sideswiping the folks in Mass. and the Canadian Maritime provinces. I don't expect a lot from this season - an El Nino is off the west coast of South America and will likely suppress a lot of activity or throw it out to sea. But all it takes one big one to do it and we could be paying mucho dinero to run the family car (most of which are still clunkers (aka SUV's and Minivans - like how many John and Jane Doe's out there had access to $$$ to buy a less clunky car?)) - and there's lots of heat potential in the Gulf right now to cause that - so it's a wait and see. But what I expect is the El Nino to really be a benefit and it keep warm enough here in Toledo to enable me to ride my Vespa well into December and maybe early January.

Most people here in the US will take the suppressed hurricane season, and the unusually cool July we just had, to keep them believing that Global Warming is a fairy tale made-up by tree-huggers and liberal weather guys to scare them out of their cars and suburbia.

Mean while, the ice cap up north keeps melting and the temperature of the oceans and their levels keeps rising . . . Yes, and Nero fiddled while Rome burned too. Pity.

Will post again when I feel like it - unless the FBI gets concerned about my Micky D's reference, in which case I might simply disappear into some Government black hole where waterboarding is the main activity.

TTFN!

HAPPY NEW YEAR - 2009 - GOOD LUCK EVERYBODY - YOU'RE GOING TO NEED IT!!

2008-12-31T23:22:00.003-05:00

Thought I end the year here with an appropriate pic. As I sit here in front of the boob tube watching G.M. trying to hawk cars, I bid everybody a Happy New Year - your're going to need it.
CHEERS!!

TOLEDO BLADE DROPS ONLINE COMMENTS

2008-12-31T13:14:00.008-05:00

FLASH: TOLEDO BLADE DROPS ONLINE COMMENTS

News Desk says "It's the staffing - we just don't have the staffing . . ."

Today I noticed that the online version of the Toledo Blade no longer provides a place at the end of its articles for comments by readers.

Curious, I called the Blade's News Desk and spoke with the lady that answered. She didn't now and put me on hold to go ask.

When she came back she advised that the commentary section of the Blade's online articles has been temporarily blocked out due to recent staffing cuts at the Blade. She added that staffing cuts affected this part of the service because there simply were not enough staff left to read/monitor the comments as they were posted. The result, she said, was that a lot of racial/ethnic slurs and statements were appearing on the website's article commentary section. Apparently there had been a lot of complaints - probably many from paying subscribers - about this problem.

So, until the Blade can either find away to deal with that or until they can recall the laid off staff (and God knows when that will be) there will be no way to comment on the Blade's articles online except in that 'Dead Zone' they call the Forum which I gather anyone hardly uses or reads. One can always write a letter to the Editor, but even even if one gets published often, the Blade will only publish one letter from any person once every 30 days.

Well, I knew about the Blade's layoffs and it's too bad that free lance comments are being blocked as a result of lack of staff.

I don't like racial/ethnic slurs myself, but that's par for having freedom of speech in the country. I know there's software that can act as a partial watch dog over postings, but what exactly constitutes a 'racial/ethnic' slur can vary from person to person. I know there are definte ones out there that leave no doubt, but many folks in our age are overly sensitive and very neurotic. That can often mean that almost anything anyone says or writes will be interpreted as a racial or ethnic slur or insult by someone. And given that level of sensitivity and neurosis of some, and the tenadancy of others (yours truly included) to use their real names when posting, it could result in a tragic FTF encounter at some point between a commenter/poster and somebody, whether in reality or perceived reality, who is offended by their comments.

But be that as it may - the fact that the Blade cannot itself monitor the situation is just more evidence to me of what's to come - just like Carty Finkbeiner's quietly ordering the salt trucks to lightly salt the roads and only run during regular business hours: it looks like that fan is either at the very edge of the shit or has begun to hit it.

(That's not backwards folks - anybody who reads this Blog already knows that I believe this whole mess is our own making: the shit (the mess) isn't going to hit the fan (us); rather, the fan is willingly going to hit the shit).

VESPA OF TOLEDO . . . A VICTIM OF THE MELTDOWN

2008-12-28T19:51:00.027-05:00

There was still some of the warm weather left yesterday when the area reached a record temperature of 65°. That left over heat caused temperatures to hover in the mid-30's today (12/28/08) and most of the ice had disappeared off the roads. Conditions were rideable, therefore. As I had some errands to run at two stores I decided to take the LX 150 out for ride.
But I needed to answer a question for myself that had been bugging me ever since my last ride - on 11/29/08: was Vespa of Toledo still going strong? I had stopped by there about 1 PM on that day - thinking I could arrange for an oil change. I figured it couldn't hurt to ask - even though Mike Kookoothe, the owner and operator of VoT, closed at 3 PM on Saturdays. However, I found the dealership closed and not a soul around. I checked inside and saw plenty of yet to be sold Vespa's on the floor. I figured (actually I hoped) that he'd decided to take the weekend off due to the Thanksgiving holiday which was only two days earlier.
Well, when I arrived at the dealership it was 2:30ish. I shut-off the LX; got off and set it on its stand. It was Sunday so I didn't expect anyone to be there - and there wasn't. I peered into the dealership's window. My heart dropped: there was nothing there but the remnants of what was, just few months ago, a thriving business: scooter helmets and accessories still neatly placed on shelves, signs half-hazardly laying about, chairs here and there, a broom leaning up against a counter and an old used scooter, BUT not one brand new one on the floor. There was no "Closed" or "Out of Business" sign - and I did look for that.
But the indications I saw were unmistakeable and they caused me to shake my head and conclude, despite the lack of any notices, that Vespa of Toledo probably had gone bust. I guessed that two factors in the economic meltdown caused this: tightened credit and the rapid deflation (via "Demand Destruction") of the price of oil since October causing the price of gasoline to drop from a high of $4.199 to what a what it is selling for now - from $1.499 to $1.599.
The former would have made it hard, if not impossible, for many potential buyers to get a loan to buy a scooter; the latter - well - for most folks around the Toledo area it was the high cost of gasoline that primaryily motivated them to even consider buying a scooter at all. It seemed likely that, VoT might have been able to weather one, but not both of those hits.
Later, I confirmed my surmisal, when, after I completed my errands and arrived safely home from my twelve mile ride, I called VoT and got a canned message from Mike stating that the economics of the country had caused him to permanently close Vespa of Toledo. The message further stated that the last day of business was this past Tuesday, December 23, 2008 - only five days ago. He further advised that within ten to twenty business days he would be in contact with his former customers, especially those under warranty, with information on how to obtain service, locally, on the machines he sold starting in May of 2007 until late this year.

It is sad to see this happen. Mike really tried to hard to give people decently priced machines and human and humane service. He was succeeding, and, but for what had happened with the economy and the price of gasoline, I am sure he would have continued to sell scooters very well (see Vespa Brings New Mode of Transport to Toledo - an article at Channel 24's website dated 04/09/2008 - only a short eight months ago).
So what options do I have? Vespa's nearest dealers are 50 to 70 miles away from here. I've learned to do some minor servicing on my own - removal of a tire for to take it to a place replace it, oil changes, battery changes - but major maintenance would require a dealer's/mechanic's touch.
I have about 6,000 miles on the LX right now. And that could make it ripe for a major issue. I'd hate to have to find myself the owner of a useless machine because there'd be no one nearby to fix it if something failed or the scoot was damaged (like it was last summer).

I'll have to wait and see what information Mike is going to provide me with regard to local servicing of my scooter. He did have a local mechanic who worked with him - perhaps he's the one Mike has in mind.

Nevertheless, I still may have to consider moving away from Vespa - a good and reliable machine - if there's no one to fix major things. Perhaps the old Yamaha Vino 125 may be in my future (my first scooter was the 2005 Vino 125 - it was replaced by the LX150 in July, 2007) - also a good and realiable machine and in some ways a little better than the Vespa - though I'm not happy about going back to do business with Honda East in Maumee where a scooterist, seeking service for his scoot, is treated like a step-child.
Well . . . I'll have to wait and see. . . However, I still remain convinced of the efficacy of riding a scooter in lieu of the automobile - and that should be obvious to anyone who even pays a tiny bit of attention to this blog.

To Mike Kookoothe: thanks for bringing Vespa scootering back to Toledo - at least for a while. You'll be missed. Good luck in 2009 and may God bless you.
P.S: For any fellow Vespa owners who got their scoot from Mike - here's his phone number - if you want to hear the message yourself: 419-882-1717. Cheers and keeping on riding!!!
My LX150 (pic taken on Thanksgiving Day, 11/27/08):

COMMENTATORS ON REAL CHANGE . . .

2008-12-27T13:03:00.004-05:00

No pic this time - just two articles I found on the net a couple of days ago. Both dicuss what REAL change in this country will require. The commentaries are so good, that I'll risk putting them in full here - with the the links of course to give full credit. Here they are:

COMMENTARY NO. 1:

A Real Auto Bailout: Escape Your Car

(found at the Wall Street Journal, 12/22/2008)

Whether you drive a hybrid or an SUV, your car is a cash-guzzler. Families trying to save real money should consider going without.

By BRETT ARENDS

Last week, the auto industry finally got its bailout.

But is it time for Americans to rescue their own finances from their cars?

Families are now bracing for the mother of all recessions. They're looking for every chance to save a dollar.

Forget lattes and store-brand cereal. If you really want to see where your money is going, take a closer look at your car. Foreign or domestic, it doesn't matter. It's a cash guzzler, and it is probably costing you more than anything else except your home.

How much? First there's the actual capital cost of buying the vehicle. Obviously people can spend as little as a few thousand dollars buying an old clunker. But most spend a lot more. And that initial cost is just the start. Now add everything from gas and maintenance to insurance, registration, taxes, tolls, parking, tickets and so on.

You'll be lucky if you're spending less than about $4,000 a year. Most people will pay a lot more. If you buy the vehicle with a loan, you'll have to pay interest. If you pay cash, you have to factor in the interest you would have made on that money if you had saved it instead. That's a real cost too, and a substantial one, though most people forget about it.

In 2007, the most recent year that numbers are available, the American Automobile Association figured its members paid about $7,800 a year on average to own and maintain their cars. That figure dropped to about $6,200 for small-car owners.

The AAA's numbers were tabulated before the surge, and recent collapse, of gasoline prices. It's hard to imagine gas prices will to remain at today's panic-level $1.60 per gallon for long. But even if they do, that will only cut the AAA's figures by about $400 annually.

These are not trifling costs. Drivers are hemhorraging money. The federal Bureau of Labor Statistics calculated that in 2006 vehicles sucked down nearly 17 cents of every family dollar.

Maybe it's time for smart families to consider some really tough choices.

Life without a car may seem inconceivable. They are useful and can be fun. In most parts of America, you really can't survive without one. And they've been hammered into the culture and the national psyche.

But a lot of things are happening these days that nobody expected. Rules are changing. People need to make every dollar count.

Trading down to the cheapest car possible is one move. Dumping one vehicle from a two-car household is tougher to do, but offers real savings. Moving into a city with a downtown, and getting rid of your cars completely, can save you even more. When you factor in the savings, city real estate might actually work out in your favor.

Residents of inner-ring and upscale suburbs, as well as everyone in car-dependent cities like Dallas and Atlanta, are in the worst of all possible worlds on this. They're paying plenty for real estate – and then paying even more on top of that to run a car for each adult in the home.

Surely they'd be better off moving out to the country, where they would still need their cars but at least real estate is cheap, or into a downtown where they could lose the cars.

Necessity, they say, is the mother of invention. We are going to see a lot of necessity. It may lead to some interesting developments.

Write to Brett Arends at brett.arends@wsj.com

COMMENTARY NO. 2

GrinchMas - And Why

(From the Market Ticker, 12/26/2008)

20% decline in the last week according to some retail surveys?

Well, yes.

Let's look at reality here - how much crap do you really need?

How many iPODs, how many DVD players, how many bigscreen TVs?

Did you notice the attempted "upselling" this year with the BluRay discs? Titles that had been out for months - in some cases more than a year - being peddled for $30/disc - or more?

What's that about? Oh sure, its higher resolution (quite a bit higher, in fact) but the actual disk itself isn't that much more expensive to press than a regular DVD - and certainly not $20 more, when the same title is available in the DVD rack as an "old release" for $10!

By the way, here's a secret you won't be told by many people - if you have a HD TV (e.g. virtually anything made in the last five or more years) you can buy an "upconverting" DVD player, or get a BluRay player and use your conventional DVD media. The player will "upconvert" the media to your TV's native resolution.

Can you tell the difference? Yes. I can. Easily, on my 60" DLP set in the family room. On my 36" in my bedroom? Not really - unless I look really, really closely.

But will I pay fifty percent more for a "new release", or three times as much for an older release, to have that movie on BluRay as opposed to DVD?

Well, having bought a couple of BluRay discs this season (to go with the Sony 550 player - a $400 unit that some guy was unloading 1500 of - overstocks I'm sure - on eBAY, for $212) I can tell you that on my 60" widescreen the difference between BluRay and DVD is easily perceptible but there's no possible way to justify a price three times as high.

When DVDs first came out I had been a 12" LaserDisc maven for a very long time and had well north of 200 titles. DVDs were a quantum leap forward in both video and audio quality - while there were a few LaserDiscs that had discrete surround sound, they were the exception rather than the rule, and LaserDisc's video was in fact an analog signal - so it had "dot crawl" and all the other sins of an analog signal, even though it was damn good compared to a VCR.

The compelling difference between DVD and BluRay simply isn't there.

This, unfortunately for retailers, is pretty much the entirety of the market - across segments.

Can you name one product that is a "game changer" - that provides a quantum leap forward, and thus is truly a "must have"?

I can't.

That's a problem, when you get down to it; all retailers are really catering to is "the quantum of more".

Now look around your house. Look at all the junk you have in your home. Quantify "junk" as anything that doesn't provide you with a place to sit (or lay down), a way to keep you warm, a means to prepare (or consume) food or drink and a way to keep your premises livable (you gotta wash your clothes somehow, right?)

All the trinkets, the 47 computers, the three iPODs and the cell phones. The "new car" you bought over the last few years, for what - the "new car" smell? Does a used car - or even a clunker - get you to work?

Think about it - how much less would an inexpensive used car have cost you? Liability insurance only as opposed to "full coverage", because if you wreck it you could replace it for a couple of grand in cash - no need for collision coverage, and if the transmission falls out you could junk and replace it for less than the cost of the repair! In a couple of years you're way ahead, and even more so if you make a habit of smashing cars (since insurance gets verrry expensive for collision coverage if you wreck frequently!)

We as a nation have gotten used to deciding we want something and therefore we will have it, because the credit card hasn't been declined (yet). When it was, we then went to the bank and pulled out our home equity, paid off the card - and charged it up again.

The entirety of our media has become focused on exactly one thing - stoking that "need for more", with Americans being literally told they're poor, destitute, and deserving of that handbag from Gucci and the brand new Lexus you must have in your driveway.

It's all a scam.

I don't know about you, but I'm pretty much at saturation when it comes to "things". I have a house, a grill, a fridge, car, dishwasher, laundry equipment and as many computers and TVs as I can reasonably use.

What's left? Nothing, really.

The "culture of more" is how we got into this mess - the demand for "more" without first earning the money to buy it.

As this continued onward beyond reasonable limits those who "must have more" turned to stealing. CDOs full of garbage "rated AAA" by companies who were effectively bribed (and used what they now acknowlege were computer models that assumed prices would never go down), peddled by people who knew their products were worthless (proved by the fact that in some cases they were shorting what they were selling!) Union "bosses" who have been documented billing thousands of hours of overtime for work not performed.

Our entire economy has turned into a culture of scamming, fraud, and BS. This morning CNBC has "news person" after news person nearly crying for people to go back to the mall and spend more money they don't have - on useless crap.

The adjustment to a "culture of what you need" is going to be jarring for many, even catastrophic for some, who simply must walk around with their noses in the air, spending at rates that are vastly beyond their ability to earn. Indeed, in places like Manhatten where the "culture of more" has turned into fraud and theft extraordinaire, driving anyone who doesn't make $500,000 a year or more out as "too poor" to afford to live there this adjustment may even come (God willing) in the form of some long days in the graybar motel with a cellmate named "Bubba".

But perhaps - just perhaps - we will rediscover the fact that a few simple things - a pumpkin pie baked from scratch in the oven (yes, including the crust), a bird or ham in the oven and hugs from those you love are worth a whole lot more than the newest plastic piece of crap from China.

Think about it - then tell the merchants of theft, fraud, avarice and greed that you simply won't play any more.

Tell the Paulsons of the world, who are inextricably tied to the financial scams of the last decade, to pound sand in the most effective way possible.

Spend your post-Christmas time giving your kids, spouse and/or SO a bunch of hugs, instead of at the local mall blowing yet more money you don't have.

You'll get more from it.

By Karl Denniger of the Market Ticker

-----

MY COMMENT

I have either quoted or referred to Denniger's Market Ticker several times in this Blog. Brett Arends is new only likely to be posted this time. Both, I have believe, have hit the nail on the head and have written about what I continue to say: we have to change our way of life if we want the Nation to pull out of this tailspin it's in.

Most of us from our childhood have been deeply, deeply steeped in the 'car culture' from the day our daddies drove our pregnant, in labor, mommies to the hospital to give us birth through kindgarten, grammer and high school, college, our first jobs - right down to the present day. To own a car is part of the American Dream. Not to have one is considered a mark of failure. To ride the public transporation is a mark of humilation, of shame . . .

This means it's going to be hard, in fact harder than any of us can expect, for change to occur. I'm not above it either.

Yesterday, we had very bad roads, covered with ice (Carlteon the Fink keeping the trucks off the road - as I indicated in my earlier blog on this), for a good part of the day. I elected to drive to work, rather than bus it. At lunch time, when I usually walk about three-tenths of mile to McDonalds, I also took the auto - as the ice was so bad that the normal five minute walk would have taken an hour.

But did I really need to do this? Do I need my twice weekly "McDonald's hit"? No. I still haven't given up on the convenience of the automobile and fast food. I could have packed a lunch and ate at my work place.

Further, since about the second week in December I've been riding the car to my law office job. Why? Well, it's full darkness by the time I get home and that's coupled with an ever increasing crime rate in my neighborhood encouaged by deserted, though well lite sidewalks.

I believed I was being set-up for robbery by somebody who lives not far from where I live. Saw the same thing two years ago when I was robbed right at the gate at my backyard. I decided that taking the car was the best option to avoid this - until early January when the tax-prep joints will open. They'd give me a place in which to duck should some crackhead low on dope and dough decides to make me his prey.

So, even with riding scooter and or bussing it when the weather's bad - crime's increasing - I too still remain too attached to the money guzzling automobile.

Even riding the bus hasn't really pulled me away from it.

Why? The bus system isn't designed to run efficiently. Despite advertisements in the local papers encouraging folks to use the bus, TARTA really isn't about getting folks out of their cars. It's about keeping the 'car culture' alive and well. After all Toledo builds cars and car parts - not many people around here want an already deeply troubled auto industry to discourage car usage.

But staying alive and well is going to require getting away from the cars, the light trucks, the SUV's and minvans and the Hummers.

Both commentators are right about it. Life without a car may seem inconceivable (per Arends), and it's all been a scam (per Denninger). Change has to come or we're in for it and it will be much, much harder than staying where we are.

THE INEVITABLE IS APPARENT.

Therefore, I'm going to have to redouble my efforts . . . despite the risks.

U.A.W BEGGED FOR BAILOUT . . . OWNS MULTI-MILLION DOLLAR LUXURY COMPLEX

2008-12-23T13:08:00.004-05:00

Just saw this at CNSNews:

$27-Million UAW-Owned Country Club Includes Golf Course, Condos, Swimming Pools

Go there - or here's the synopis: while the U.A.W.'s Prez, Gettlefinger was begging, with the Big Three and then got $17.4 Billion from frightened Prez W - there was no mention of the huge luxury complex owned by the U.A.W. in at "The Black Lack Country Club and Black Lake Country Club". This is in Onaway, Michigan.

It appalled me. Heck I can't even afford a trip to Cedar Point and these buzzards are tripping out in great surroundings.

CNSNews allowed comments.

The one that struck was this one:

"BADDAD at 05:18 PM - December 22, 2008

PRINT THIS, most of you people leaving comments make me sick. The UAW created the middle class, brought the standard of living up for every American Citizen, provided clean & safe work places for men & women. Maybe we should go back to unsafe work places and pay scales that won't put food on the table. The real problem in this country is IMPORTS, you know it & I know it. So this Christmas, as you drive to the store in you car made in JAPAN (yes 90% of what they sell here is imported, check the sticker for once) to buy a TV or COMPUTER made in JAPAN, pick up some tennis shoes & blue jeans, maybe some underware, cloves or sweaters made in CHINA, remember that today 95% of everything you buy is imported into this country and that alone is why we are in the shape we are in. Only the people of this country can fix the problem by refusing to buy anything that isn't made here. Imagine all the jobs that would be created in this country. Happy Holidays to all and wake up before it's to late!!!"

My response was this which I submitted on 12/23/08 (not posted yet - don't know if CNSNews will allow it as they are very conservative):

No BADAD - the problem isn't imports. The problem here is the refusal to change our way of life. From the 20's to the 40's GM, using a shadow bus company, called 'National City Lines", with cold calculation deliberately destroyed the nation's mass transit system based on electric trollies. The auto execs in 1948 were caught via a congressional investigation. They were fined and told not do it again. A slap on the wrist really - after all the Big Three had just saved the U.S. from Nazis and Japs. "See the U.S.A. in your Chevrolet" was the result. We are paying the price of that today. "The Car Culture" must end if we want to save the Nation. This must include the end not only of the Big Three, but all the others too. Rebuilding the mass transit system from the pitiful state it is in right now needs to be a priority. Also, focus on localization will be required. If we keep to trying to 'save' this culture and the 'me' focused way of life, God's just going to step away and let happen what will happen.

WHERE HAS ALL THE MONEY GONE . . .

2008-12-22T08:27:00.005-05:00

Where'd the bailout money go? Shhhh, it's a secret

from Yahoo News - 12/22/08

"WASHINGTON – It's something any bank would demand to know before handing out a loan: Where's the money going?

But after receiving billions in aid from U.S. taxpayers, the nation's largest banks say they can't track exactly how they're spending the money or they simply refuse to discuss it.

"We've lent some of it. We've not lent some of it. We've not given any accounting of, 'Here's how we're doing it,'" said Thomas Kelly, a spokesman for JPMorgan Chase, which received $25 billion in emergency bailout money. "We have not disclosed that to the public. We're declining to."

WHERE HAS ALL THE MONEY GONE?

(with apologies to Pete Seeger)

Oh, where has all the money gone?

Long time passing

Oh, where has all the money gone?

Long time ago

Oh, where has all the money gone?

Gone to FAT CATS every buck!

When will they ever learn?

MORE WORDS OF WISDOM . . .

2008-12-20T23:40:00.005-05:00

I have already posted my oppostion to the both the bailouts -the $700 Billion one for the banks and the $17.4 Billion for the Big Three.

Why? Quite simply we threw good money after bad. Doing so is only staving off the inevitable: the total collapse of our economy with social chaos and anarchy as a result.

One the solutions I offered was to take the $54 Billion bantered about as the real sum the Big Three needed and use it to keep the soon to be unemployed auto workers financially afloat - NOT AWASH with money. In the meantime, per Howard Kunstler, immediately begin moving away from the "Car Culture" and rebuild the mass transit system for both intra-city and inter-city travel.

Now Mr. Karl Denniger who writes the Market Ticker Blog has offered this wisdom today, 12/20/08:

"Unless you're rooting for several million of our young people to be killed in the next World War, [we] must [do all the following]:

President Obama must not try to stop the unwind. In fact, quite to the contrary - we must cease taking on more debt (that is, funding more bailout and "stimulus" programs) because they simply make the matter worse. In short President Obama must force the unwind to take place by withdrawing the artificial support. I'm well-aware that from a political popularity point of view this may well be impossible - nonetheless, if we are to avoid catastrophe it must be done as the damage now is much smaller than the damage that will occur if we don't stop the insanity.

The Fed must be told to either place back into full force and effect all leverage and reserve requirements and police them or the US Government will act to force them to do so. This must happen right now.

Full, 100% transparency for all - including Treasury and The Fed - must occur immediately and be maintained in perpetuity. We must not lose the confidence of those who fund our debt and to do so we must prove on an immediate and continuing basis that we have changed.

We must accept the contraction in our GDP that will and must occur. In short, we must stop lying and papering over the inevitable which has done nothing but make what is to come worse. There will be massive numbers of bankruptcies, including large banks and other institutions, that will come from this. We have no choice but to accept this reality as it is far less damaging than the alternative.

The human suffering that is and will occur will be tremendous no matter what we do. The one place we can and should spend is on essential human needs; that is, food, shelter and clothing. We can provide barracks-style shelter, cafeteria-style food, basic medical care and donation-based clothing for millions of Americans for a song compared to these "bailouts" and we both can and must. Every state should have these centers established in major cities and at least one at or near its geographic center (or the closest reasonable place to it) in which all United States Citizens (but no illegal aliens) can come, reside, eat and obtain basic clothing and medical care at no cost to them. This can be done at a cost of single-digit dollars per day per person, and we must. This is a social imperative and we simply have to be prepared to provide it.

We can rebuild our economy, but we must do so from a stable base. The GDP contraction that is to come must be accepted, and we can no longer fund false GDP "growth" with an ever-increasing debt load.

Our choice is to accept this now or have it forced upon us in the future, with that future date approaching at a rapid rate and the amount of damage increasing with every day we delay".

There you have it: Mr. Kunslter's works plan - rebuild mass transit and Mr. Denniger's economics plan - stop adding to the debt by using bailouts; be transparent and while recovering make sure U.S. citizens have a place to sleep, something to wear, medical care and some place to live.

And I repeat and emphasize his final words in today's Blog:

Our choice is to accept this NOW or have it forced upon us in the future, with that future date approaching at a rapid rate and the amount of damage increasing with every day we delay.

WORRIED ABOUT HIS LEGACY . . . 'W' BAILS . . .

2008-12-19T10:11:00.008-05:00

Well, it's news now: 'W' has bailed . . . worried about his 'Legacy'.

Yep the Big Three have been offered $17.4 Billion. If they can't come up with a business plan by March 31st - they gotta pay it back. DON'T expect to see that money ever again - you can bet on that.

Huge structural changes are demanded of them and the UAW has to pony up too - including eliminating, not just suspending, the "free money" Jobs Bank.

They'll all bite the Big One 'cause they know their man will soon be sworn in as Prez in just 22 days. They also all know he'll likely change the standards for the Bailout for the auto industry whose 'car culture' infrastructure he has made quite clear he intends to preserve. And of course, there's a special place in his heart for his buds at the U.A.W. who I'm sure will come to collect on the promises he made.

As for me - I've got my shoe in hand . . .

Try "Shock and Awe" - Hit 'W' with the Shoe Game

FOR GOD'S SAKE - DON'T ASK ME . . . DON'T TELL ME; SEE NO EVIL . . . NOR HEAR OR SPEAK IT . . .

2008-12-18T09:15:00.012-05:00

Just a short comment this morning . . .

After reading the headlines at "Peak Oil Breaking News"; and "the Market Ticker"; and seeing this auto bailout mess; and continuing to watch as the local yokels still don't seem to get it - I've come to the conclusion that we've become a "Don't ask me; don't tell me" and a "Hear no evil; see no evil; speak no evil" people.

Geez - I just realized that was confirmed a few days ago. While talking to a friend I told her her grandkids are likely to have it tough, she reacted by saying: "DON'T SPEAK EVIL OVER THEM!"

CAN'T FIND IT ON "YOUTUBE TO INBED IT - BUT HERE'S THE GRAPHIC THAT SAYS IT:

WILEY COYOTE, SUPER GENIUS

I'm sure all you fellow Baby-Boomers and early Gen-X'ers know what I mean. As for the rest - ask yo' Mama or yo' Daddy to 'xplain it to ya!!

Side note . . . did see comments on why the streets weren't being cleared properly on Tuesday - at least on the Interstate - the weather was blamed - it came in too fast to keep up with. I can believe that one time, but not twice in a row. I still think there's serious budget problems and nobody wants to say so out of fear of starting a general panic . . .

A SIGN OF WHAT'S TO COME?

2008-12-16T20:06:00.020-05:00

Had an errand to run this snowy night. It was just a ride to the south end of Toledo to place seven miles distant from my home. However, as I went out I found that the streets had not yet been plowed or salted - at all.

This was unlike last year (or in fact for many years before) when the streets were pre-salted hours before the storm hit. Then when the snow began to fall, trucks were out salting and plowing the streets.

This was at about 7:30 PM. I had come home via automobile at about 5 - 5:20 PM and the streets were already snow covered and trecherous then. They were even more so at 7:30.

I drove about a little over mile in it - down to the Greenbelt Parkway. When I saw it too was snowed covered - without even a hint of a snow plow being applied, I decided to call off the errand. I got over to Cherry Street and carefully made my way home from there.

Budget problems causing this? A sign of what's to come? I think yes on both accounts.

I don't know if anyone is calling in mad as hell to the City or the local T.V. or radio stations about the condition of the streets. If not - perhaps a fatalistic sense of the inevitiable in these hard economics time has settled in?

Several days ago the same thing happened - though not quite as bad as tonight - the really first long lasting snow fall we'll be getting for the next wintery months. I don't recall anyone raising hell about it then either.

I remember in 1998 and 1999 we got hit hard with some bad winter storms. Carty was at the helm as mayor then too and he got a real earful from hundreds of angry citizens mad as hell that the City failed to clear the streets quickly enough.

Heh, I can recall Carty's response - he jumped to. And the result: snowplow drivers being interviewed on T.V. talking about their 12 hour shifts. Carty being interviewed on how Toledo was going to conqueror this. I even remember seeing T.V. crews videoing as huge piles of snow were being dumped on to empty vacant parking lots - like the now defunct Southwyck Mall's.

And now . . . it's like a whole new world. Well, maybe. I'll see if the news has anything on it tomorrow as I'll have to hit the rack early if I want to shovel snow and catch the bus. But I won't be surprised if nothing is said at all . . .

One or both of my youthful neighbor boys have just finished clearing out their sidewalks and the alley's drive with mostly gasoline powered snowplows and good old snow shovels. The former, I believe, will last as long as they can run and then it'll be back to the 'strong-arm' method of clearing ice and snow like our ancestors did for centuries.

As the snow won't stop until about midnight, I won't be out until morning - before I have to catch the bus to work - to do the same.

So, I couldn't do my errand tonight which also included one of two weekly stops at the grocery store. I wasn't going to drive for anyone or anything, short of a matter of life and death - at least for that distance. Two or three miles I might try. Certainly I won't drive to work in it when TARTA's buses are available - even if they only run two every hour during the morning rush.

As for the owners of four-wheel drive vehicles like Jeeps and other SUV's - they can have the laugh for now as they smuggly fly over the snow-covered streets - tailgating others whose vehicles haven't that ablity. They'll be laughing out of the other side of their face once the Big Three fall and there's no parts available to fix those gas guzzling anachronisms.

Complaints frome me? Hell, no! This is what I was hoping and praying for . . . no use grumbling about what I got. It's time to begin the massive readjustment of attitude in my own life now and hope my fellow Americans are willing to do it too.

I believe this is but a tiny, tiny, tiny little dip into the bath that all of us are about to be immersed in.

TIME TO MOVE ON . . . AND YOU ALL JUST WON'T . . .

2008-12-16T10:14:00.009-05:00

Yesterday, 12/15/08, I read at Channel 11 that some insane dude was running around in the Detroit area damaging vehicles at Toyota, Honda and Volkswagon dealerships and then scrawling "Buy American!" on the windshields.

Yesterday, I read an letter to editor in the Toledo Blade from an upset writer who didn't like the 'bad talk' about the auto industry. He concluded by stating "I can't imagine an America without the auto industry."

Today 12/16/08, a young lady who works for my attorney employer's associate cried out that whatever George Bush has got in mind for the auto industry he'd better reveal it now and do it. Her fiance works for a local auto parts supply dealer.

These are all signs of a people who just won't admit to themselves that they have to move on before it's too late . . .

Here's my response to all - yet another on the mark statment from Howard Kunstler - published on 12/15/08:

"We have to, so to speak, get to a place mentally where we can face the kinds of change that are now necessary and unavoidable. We're not there yet. It's not clear whether the elected new national leadership knows just how severe the required changes will really be. Surely the public would be shocked to grasp what's in store. Probably the worst thing we can do now would be to mount a campaign to stay where we are, lost in raptures of happy motoring and blue-light-special shopping."

FROM "RUST BELT" TO "BUST BELT"

2008-12-12T12:51:00.006-05:00

SOME SCENES FROM THE PAST:

REALITY: AUTO BAILOUT DEAD. IT'S "RUST BELT" TO "BUST BELT".

The automobile industry failed; the GOP members of the Senate are blaming the UAW for refusing to take wage reductions; the UAW fires right back and says the GOP Republicans scuttled it and now Prez Bush, terrified, is going to step in while Mr. O., the Pre-elect, calls out for the industry to be saved. . . .

As Colonel Potter in M*A*S*H would have said "Horse hockey!!"

Mr. O (and the rest of you out there) you've just got to get to know that:

"The motoring era is coming to an end. Heroic investments in highway infrastructure to create jobs will be a tragic waste of our dwindling capital. The pressure for Mr. O to make these misinvestments will be enormous, perhaps insurmountable. There are probably not a thousand people (I'M ONE OF 'EM!!) in the US who agree with what I am saying -- meaning the consensus to keep the cars running at all costs overwhelms reality at the moment. Does Mr. O's (or anyone else) have concept of "change" that includes the possibility that we may have to live very differently in this society?" (from Howard Kunstler's post dated 12/01/08)

It don't look like it.

UAW folks from Jeep were here to today where I work. It's Christmas time and they were here to donate toys for children in homeless families (whose ranks they may soon be joining). I really wanted to lay the low down on them and tell 'em they should be humping out - today, right now, building trollies and trams or laying down track or hanging wires instead of building more gas guzzling Jeeps. However, I figured it would accomplish nothing else but at the least, getting into a shouting match or at worst a fist fight - with job loss (mine) sure to follow no matter what happened.

It is such a pity watching my Homeland hanging tight on to the rails of a ship that is sinking while the rescue boat is right there - if they would but open their eyes and see it. Yeah it ain't a pretty shiney boat; and it'll need a lot of work to make 'er run, but it'll be much, much much better than holding on until there isn't anything else to hold to but the pieces of floating wreakage from the one that just went under.

WORSHIPPING AT THE ALTAR OF MO'

2008-12-09T12:38:00.012-05:00

From the New York Times (today 12/09/08):

"DETROIT — The Sunday service at Greater Grace Temple began with the Clark Sisters song “I’m Looking for a Miracle” and included a reading of this verse from the Book of Romans: “I consider that our present sufferings are not worth comparing with the glory that will be revealed in us.”

Pentecostal Bishop Charles H. Ellis III, who shared the sanctuary’s wide altar with three gleaming sport utility vehicles, closed his sermon by leading the choir and congregants in a boisterous rendition of the gospel singer Myrna Summers’s “We’re Gonna Make It” as hundreds of worshipers who work in the automotive industry — union assemblers, executives, car salesmen — gathered six deep around the altar to have their foreheads anointed with consecrated oil . . .

While Congress debated aid to the foundering Detroit automakers Sunday, many here whose future hinges on the decision turned to prayer . . .

Outside the Corpus Christi Catholic Church, a sign beckoned passers-by inside to hear about “God’s bailout plan.” Roman Catholic churches in the Detroit area distributed a four-page letter from Cardinal Adam Maida, the archbishop, offering “some pastoral insights and suggestions about how we might prepare to celebrate Christmas this year when economic conditions are so grim.”

In the letter, Cardinal Maida acknowledged that “things in Michigan will probably never be the same” but encourages the region’s 1.3 million Catholics to maintain their faith. “At this darkest time of the year, we proclaim that Christ is our light and Christ is our hope,” he wrote.

Last week Cardinal Maida gathered 11 Detroit-area religious leaders, representing Christian, Jewish and Muslim congregations, to call on Congress to approve the $34 billion in government-backed loans that the automakers have requested . . .

We’ve got to keep the faith,” said Mike Young, 47, who works for the Dana Corporation, a parts supplier, and has spent more than three months of this year on furlough. His factory, in the suburb of Auburn Hills, builds drive shafts for Chrysler, which has said it would soon run out of money without billions of dollars in aid from Congress. “But you can’t count on that,” Mr. Young said. “All my hope is in God.”

Yes all their hope is in God - the Auto God; their Fine 4 Fendered Friend; or simply - MO' . . .

So as Congress, in desperation, is about to piddle about $15 Billion away on that raging blaze called "Mo' Town", all I can do is sit here and shake my head in disgust. Why? This is all such a waste. "Mo' - He gonna die. 'n when He die He gonna takes a lot dem witt 'im": the price of worshipping an idol - a graven image of themselves . . .

Too bad . . . 'cause Mo' been usin' dem as His Ho'. They outta tell Mo' He can go down low! But . . . well see below . . .

And it kind of gives a whole new meaning to the words (not the song) "Swing Low Sweet Chariot" doesn't it?

Well, as James Howard Kunstler wrote yesterday:

"President-elect Obama has announced his intention to kick off a massive "stimulation" program when he hits the White House "running" in January. Early indications are that it will be directed at things like highway repair. If so, we will be investing long-term in infrastructure that we probably won't be using the same way in ten years. But I doubt there is any way around it."

Why?

Because . . . "[t]he American public can't conceive of living any other way except in a car-centered society . . ."

And his conclusion:

"Stimulus aimed at perpetuating mass motoring will be a tragic waste of our dwindling resources. We'd be better off aiming it at fixing the railroads (especially electrifying them), refitting our harbors with piers and warehouses in preparation to move more stuff by boats, and in repairing the electric grid. Unfortunately, our tendency will be to try to rescue the totemic touchstones of everyday life, things familiar and comfortable, regardless of whether they have a future or not . . .

Mr. Obama would be most successful if he could persuade the public how much more severe the required changes are than they currently realize, and inspire them to get with program of retrofitting American life to comply with these realities . . ."

Will he listen and do this? Nah . . . for he's afraid of offending those who worship at the Altar of Mo' who helped put him where's he's gonna be come January 20th.

And so what I can do at this point? Nothing -- but stand-by and watch as the whole-she-bang comes crashing down 'round here.

Pity . . . .

WORDS OF WISDOM: WHAT WE SHOULD BE DOING . . . AND AREN'T (YET) . . .

2008-11-24T11:10:00.006-05:00

From Howard Kunstler's Blog (11/17/08) - a statement of what we should be doing instead of trying to save the dying beast that is the automobile industry, aka the Big 3:

" . . . we have to get cracking on the revival of the railroad system in this country, if we expect to remain a united country. This is such a no-brainer that the absence of any talk about it is a prime symptom of the zombie disease that has eaten away our brains. Automobiles (the way we use them) and airplanes are utterly dependent on liquid hydrocarbon fuels, and you can be certain we'll have trouble getting them. You can run trains by other means -- electricity being state-of-the-art in those parts of the world that do it most successfully. I know that California just voted to create a high-speed rail link between Los Angeles and San Francisco. It's an optimistic sign, but it shows more than a little techno-grandiose over-reach. High speed rail would require a mega-expensive re-do of the tracks. We need to scale our ambitions for this more realistically. California (and every other region of America) would benefit much more from normal-speed trains running every hour on the hour on tracks that already exist than from a mega-expensive, grandiose sci-fi program that might not get built for ten years. The dregs of the Big Three automakers can and should be reorganized to produce the rolling stock for a revived railroad system."

Italicized and bolded section: mine.

This says is all: put those soon to be restless refugees from the auto industy into railroading.

If we don't - all I can say is: the Cataclysm will come and it won't be a pretty sight especially in rust-belt auto industry towns, like, well like Toledo. When GM's Powertrain and Jeep go down that'll be 10,000 people thrown out of work with a ripple effect likely to take 1/3 (at best) to 1/2 (at worst) of the rest of the working force around here down with them. That many unemployed here, pushed by desperation, will slip into very unsavory behavior just to survive and feed their families. Walking the streets in Toledo in broad daylight could become like walking in a war zone: you'd have to be armed and ready or you're history.

IT DON'T HAVE TO BE THIS WAY. For the love of God - let's get the railroading mass transit system, as per Mr. Kunstler's statement, going again. We can't stave off the economic disaster coming, but we can, at this moment in time, deeply buffer the horrendous effects likely to be caused when the socio-economic network we have now, based on the 'car culture', falls apart.

The doomsday clock is ticking away folks . . . we haven't much more to fritter. Time to do what needs doing and NOW!!!

THE SPECTER OF DEFLATION IS UPON US!

2008-11-19T11:05:00.003-05:00

Bloomberg reports that the consumer price index fell 1% - a record since record keeping started in the late 40's. It means prices are sliding and sliding fast!

Gas, for example, is done to about $1.739. Yahoo News reports that this have dropped 50% since their high in July and the price of barrel of oil is down to $54.00 per barrel.

Sounds great right! Go right ahead and gas up the fuel hog, right?!

NOT!

Here is a quote from an article written in 1999 entitled: Why We Should Fear Deflation:
(click the link to get to the whole article):

"The coming of the Great Depression, however, shifted economists' focus away from balanced fears of inflation and deflation and to the conclusion that deflation was deeply dangerous, and to be avoided at all costs. Economists' analyses of the root causes of the Great Depression were (and continue to be) widely divergent. Nevertheless, alomost every analyst of the Great Depression placed general deflation--and the chain of financial and real bankruptcies that it caused--at or near the heart of the worst macroeconomic disaster the world has ever seen."

Nobody wants to use the "D" word - but this is quite shocking. Deflation, along with the soon to fall auto industry may be an indicator that the Cataclysm (A Great Depression) which I was concerned with not long ago in this Blog, appears to be on the move toward us again.

Of course "Cataclysm" is relative - when it comes it will be the death of one way of life and yet new one will rise out out of its ashes. It's the pain of the interim that people will feel the most and care about the most 'cause job loss is likely to be very high in deflationary situation.

So, I am convinced "It" is definitely coming. What shall we do? I guess each of us will have to decide that on their own.

And maybe I should change this Blog's name to "I DON'T CARE HOW HIGH GAS PRICES GO OR HOW FAR THEY FALL!"?

After all, the price of gasoline, to a certain extent, currently seems to be our best barometer for inflation or deflation, methinks!

I'll think about it.

THE BIG 3 BEG CONGRESS FOR MONEY - NEED LIFE SUPPORT - LET 'EM DIE!

2008-11-19T08:34:00.019-05:00

The CEO's of the Big 3 appeared before the Senate yesterday - begging for $25 Billion they say they need to survive. Today they will appear before the House for the same reason.

Most members of Congress are skeptical. Quite a few of them believe that the damage the auto industry has suffered is self-inflicted. Most don't want to release monies to them that was supposed to help bailout the banking system. Mr. Paulson who enigneered the Bailout is resistent to letting any of that money got out for any other purpose.

N.W. Ohio's local gal on the spot - Marcy K. - who opposed the first Bailout probably is quietly lobbying for this one. No word has come down from her office on where she stands on this new

Bailout (at least not the last time I checked the Web). But I'm sure she's getting an earful from many locals (esp. from those who work at Powertrain and the Jeep Plant on Stickney and their retirees) who fear the loss of 10,000 local jobs and an Armageddon for the Toledo if Mo-Town goes down. Carty the Fink is out in Washington, along with other Rustbelt mayors, adding their voice to the clamor on Captial Hill.

I know what's at stake too - but I'm deeply against giving them anything as I said in my last post. Why?

I will say it again: warnings were given for decades to the Big 3 about selling SUV's and Big Ass Trucks and Minvans and also allowing labor agreements that were soaking the industry while at the same time dragging it down. I'm not against Unions - as long as they really work for justice for their members. But in this case the members got a hell of lot more than they really needed.

Case in point: I used to walk around as a Pinkerton guard at the now closed Ford Stamping Plant in Maumee. In in 1998 and 1999 - the years I worked there, I made about $8 per hour. I had access to a print-out of the employees who worked there and for some reason, I don't know why, the print-out always included the current hourly rate for each man and woman. On the average they made about $24 to $28 per hour. Three times (and more) than I was I making and I was also working two other jobs, elsewhere, in addtion to that guard postion. I sometimes put in 60 hours a week. I topped out at bout $40 Thousand a year then, but these folks, some who worke 80 hours per week, were well into the six figure income bracket.

And it was hard as hell to get in there too - a lottery was conducted in which employees could submit names once per year. If the name was drawn, the person was hired on a trial basis. It was supposed to be an honest one - names drawn out of a pot by the lottery committee chairperson while blindfolded. Yet presistent rumors floated around that many of the workers unabashedly bribed members of that lottery committee with huge sums of money to ensure their wife or husband son or daughter or nephew or niece or some other relative or good friend (or one they were shacking up with) would get a place on the line.

But, even despite that chicanery, I do admit they worked hard and got lots of harressment from mangement, but most lived like little kings and queens outside of the Plant. A few had purchased working farms in the sticks and added the money made by renting the land out to farmers to their already substantial incomes; others bought 5 to 10 acres of land in the suburbia and turned them to into little feudal estates - palace-like house and moat-like pond too! Yet even that wasn't enough - I knew one guy and his wife who both worked there who tried to solicit me to buy stuff from them they sold via Amway! They got mad when I wouldn't buy! Others I know of who worked there lived far beyond their means and were going bankrupt while getting that fat six figure income.

Disgusting!

Now their jobs are gone as they too were making parts for gas guzzlers - the 4x4 trucks I believe and some are hoping to restart the place with their own money.

I don't think so. The Big 3 and the UAW got themselves into this mess and they are going down. GM's CEO says the company won't even last until the end of 2008 without a transfusion of money. I really do believe what the CEO's are saying - they will go down and not even a Chapter 11 will do a bit of good.

It's gonna collaspse anyhow - the $25 Billion will just post-pone the inevitable.

After the dust settles - let's rebuild on a basis of a system not focused on on rabid consumerism, but on thriftiness and truth - one that doesn't destroy our planet - one in which we, 5% of the world's population, are not using up 25% of the world's resources.

It'll be new way of life. It's coming folks - fighting to keep it from happening will just make the birth all the harder.

BAILING OUT THE BIG THREE?

2008-11-17T20:30:00.010-05:00

I haven't posted here in about month - every since the certain Cataclysm has been put on hold.

Since then Barack Hussein Obama has gone and won the presidency of the country.

But that's still yet to come.

Today we have the problem of yet another bailout -this time it's for the Big Three.

I have already given my opinion on the car companies several times in this Blog. But I'll say it again - I am not for them.

They were warned, over and over an over again - since the late 1970's not to build gas guzzlers. But the CEO's turned a deaf and scornful ear to the people they considered freaks and doomsayers. And the UAW - being compliant puppies in this area - gave in -as long as they got their huge piece of the pie.

And now here these guys and their lackeys are - begging for money. Asking us all to pay the bill and to cover-up their mistakes and reward them for poor management.

Read my lips: NO!

Prez-elect Obama has said that letting these three fall will result in disaster. I agree. Yet, if any bailout money is given them - all that will be done is to stave off what is to certain to come no matter what: their total collapse.

I had a letter to the editor posted today in the Toledo Blade. Basically I called for an end to the "car culture". The Money should be put into discouraging the purchase of motor vehicles that carry anymore than two people. Money needs to put into the re-creation of the mass transit system the Big Three criminally destroyed starting in the 1920's and continuing into the 1940's.

The "Kayla Renee's" have to get the message that running out to Cafe Marie's for lunch with the girls in the Yukon has got to stop. The "R. Chase Eddington's" need to understand that hopping in the Mercedes to go play tennis or racket ball at the Club in the morning is not possible anymore. The Yokeshia's and JeJuan's must get the visions of the slick and fancy Caddy or Lincoln Towne Cars out of their minds. And mom's of whatever persuasion need to find other ways to "grab the kids".

But I know that none of these consumerists will do it on their own. I am sure of that from observations conducted from the saddle of a motor scooter in over three years of riding in this town.

Therefore, I think to bring that about that most of the fuel must to be diverted to where it's really needed: the freight industry which keeps our cities and towns suppled . This means that the trucks, the trains and planes get first dibs on gas. Everyone else takes what's left. That will send a message right quick: the day of the car is past - stop using it as your status symbol, the sign that "you've made it."

But I know that folks in this nation - and especially in this rust-belt town - will hang on to this sinking dreamboat until they are floating in the water arms wrapped around a piece of its wreakage. That's really too bad because it doesn't have to be that way.

There's still a little time left - the disaster cannot be averted, but it can be buffered. Let's put the money where it can help and not funnel it into a black hole and leave ourselves with nothing but the abbyss to face.

NO BAIL OUT FOR THE BIG THREE!!!

THE CATACLYSM . . . RECEDETH . . . BUT AT WHAT PRICE?

2008-10-17T09:28:00.005-04:00

DOW: +401 (YESTERDAY + OVER 300)

VIX (FEAR) INDICATOR: -67 (DOWN)

Didn't post last night . . . too tired. But I concede that the Cataclysm recedeth . . . but with qualification.

What is that? The actions of Paulson in intimidating 9 big banks to take $250 Billion - even Wells Fargo who said "No thank, you!" What is Paulson saying by putting the muscle on these banks? So that no one would feel stigmatized. Bull!

The take over of banking institutions is a biggie. However, most of the folks on 'Main Street' don't really care. They just want to survive. Just like technology - they don't want to know HOW it works only THAT it works. That's why guys like Bill Gates, founder of Microsoft, has gotten away with theft for years. As long as the masses can go to the store and buy food to keep the 'precious puss plugged with paplum' (i.e. keep the kiddies fed) and can put cheap gasoline in their cars - anyone will be allowed to do anything they want to them. That's why guy's like Paulson and Bernake will get away with it too.

Today's Dilbert cartoon exemplifies this exactly:

"I'll probably buy it." Yes each an every one of you, my fellow Americans will. You'll up end your naked butts pre-slathered with Vaseline and hope it doesn't hurt too bad when "it" goes in.

I've heard my 'everyman' speak: He just wants to survive - to say it another way - he just wants absolute security.

But as Ben Franklin said, wisely, over 200 years ago: he who would sacrifice liberty for security deserves neither liberty or security.

I'll be watching the markets as I still do not believe this 'bailout' is going to work in the long run.

GASOLINE: SAW IT FOR $2.699 - LIKELY TO GO LOWER. ENJOY IT WHILE YOU CAN!

RUNNING AROUND LIKE A CHICKEN . . .

2008-10-16T15:54:00.003-04:00

DOW: + 362

VIX: (FEAR) INDICATOR: 72 (UP AT 3:45)

YAHOO NEWS:

"The $250 billion is part of the $700 billion bailout program for the financial system that Congress passed on Oct. 3 in an effort to get banks to resume more normal lending.

As the plan was rushed through Congress, Paulson and other officials stressed that the money was needed to buy up bad loans and mortgage-backed securities that are sitting on the books of banks and making them reluctant to make new loans.

Paulson said Thursday that the program's emphasis was changed after the legislation passed when market developments showed how critical it was to quickly shore up bank balance sheets with fresh capital. He said government was still moving ahead with the program to buy bad assets and the administration has allocated $100 billion for that portion of the program.

In a separate interview on Bloomberg television, Paulson refused to rule out the possibility that some of the $700 billion program could be used to shore up giant hedge funds, largely unregulated pools of investments, or insurance companies."

COMMENT:

Ol' Paulson sounds and is acting like the proverbial chicken running around with its head cut-off! Now the money, that was supposed to be used to buy back bad mortgages and loans is being used to shore up (and take-over) banks. Next they might use it to shore up hedge funds and bad bonds.

I wonder when he'll come back and ask for more money because " . . . market developments . . ." show something else "critical" which must be 'quickly" shored up (and taken over).

I don't think Mr. Paulson knows what he's doing - either that - or he's got another agenda that he doesn't want the taxpayers to know about - YET!

The Dow is up, but so is the fear factor.

Later . . .

WILLL THIS BE THE FACE OF MIDDLE CLASS MOM?

2008-10-16T06:25:00.004-04:00

With all the economic gloom I have to wonder will this be the face of the American Middle Class Mom twelve months from now:

The Nikkei: down over 1000!

Europe's Index: dropping

And key: freight being moved by ship, according to the Baltic Dry Index (BDI), is plummeting like a rock.

Woe to those who be with child now or whose intense nocturnal activities got them the 'big belly' last night!

THE CATACLYSM COMETH . . . DAY 10

2008-10-15T22:35:00.007-04:00

DOW: - 733

VIX (FEAR) INDICATOR: 69 (UP)

I think these need no words:

and . . . from the Market Ticker:

"The latest "intervention" was good for one hour worth of rocket ride higher, and now we are down 350 points on the DOW - again - and its only 10:00 CT. At this rate in another 30 days or so the market will be at zero - it can't go lower than zero, right?

Letters of credit and the credit lines for trade currently are frozen,'' Khalid Hashim, managing director of Precious Shipping Pcl, Thailand's second-largest shipping company, said in Singapore yesterday. Nothing is moving because the trader doesn't want to take the risk of putting cargo on the boat and finding that nobody can pay.

This is precisely the sort of disruption that, if not cured immediately, can lead to empty store shelves."

Harley-Davidson, filled with hubris, is saying "Screw-it and ride". I'd say to H-D: screw you 'cause we're all being ridden. Pass the Vaseline!

What will happen if things don't change soon:

I REMAINED UNFAZED - THE CATACLYSM COMETH . . .

GASOLINE: SAW IT AT 3.759

THE CATACLYSM COMETH . . . DAY 9

2008-10-14T21:53:00.002-04:00

DOW: - 76.62

VIX (FEAR) INDICATOR: 55.13 (UP)

Well the Media is trying to be Pollyanna trying to paint a Dow "down just a little". Really! Let's look at the picture of the whole day:

Tell me, is that's picture of something good; something positive? It's a downward trend for crying outloud!.

The Nikkei isn't much better. At this hour it's down 94.61. But here's it's picture:

Neither look good to me.

The Prez got on the tube this morning and spoke about $250 Billion being "injected" into the banking system like a flu shot.

Trouble is the patient has pneumonia in both lungs.

The Market Ticker guy's (Karl Denniger) Blog today is entitled: America Has Died to Thunderous Applause.

Here's key quotes patched from it:

"We have a citzenry - that is, you - who will sit like a lapdog and take this sort of crap from our government as your savings, retirement and wealth are plundered mercilessly . . . You've been violated America, and you have not only tolerated it you've cheered while it happened . . . I bet, in fact, you cheered the nearly 1000 point rise in the DOW yesterday, even though it came from the expectation that you would be robbed blind to pay for the foibles of these bankers that arose from their felonious and outrageous conduct . . ."America dies to thunderous applause" instead of pitchfork-and-torch-style outrage, which is what we should have seen. . . . my advice is to use this rally to raise cash . . . You're going to need it, as this rally is likely to have less staying power than you would like, and the real economy, which was thrown under the bus this morning to bail out the rich bankers, will soon reflect reality."

Bloomberg has an exclusive article entitled:

GM Survival Questioned as SUV's End Chills Ohio Town.

It's about the closure of plant that's been in Moraine, Ohio for about 90 years. It will close right near Christmas Day. It's an SUV plant. SUV's ain't selling anymore so it will close and put 7,000 out of work. But the main point is that this may an indicator of something else: the death of General Motors!

Here's some patched together quotes from it: "

"Merger talks and retrenchments by the world's largest automaker are signs that the 100-year-old company's continued existence may be in doubt . . . This is not a GM is sinking decision . . .This is an industry shift, not just a GM shift . . .Median household annual income for Moraine was $34,341, 82 percent of the national level . . .[The workers] lives are going to have to change . . ."

These folks are are small picture of the whole nation. Just like Iceland, which is teetering on the brink of the abyss, is of the whole world.

There's much more on the Net, but it's enough for me to still proclaim:

The Cataclysm Cometh . . .

Until tomorrow!

THE CATCLYSM COMETH . . . DAY 8

2008-10-13T18:51:00.002-04:00

DOW: + 936

VIX INDICATOR (the Fear Indicator)
: 54.9 (DOWN FROM RECORD HIGH OF 76.86 ON 10/10)

NO BLACK MONDAY TODAY! NEVERTHELESS - THE CATACLYSM COMETH!

The whole world is proclaiming a recovery from the huge drop on 10/10 of the Dow. Europe's stock exchange is up too (225.35). Nikkei was closed today, but will likely climb when it opens in few hours.

Even the the VIX (fear indicator) dropped from 76 to 54.

It might be said that perhaps I could start to say "The Cataclysm recedeth . ."

I remain unconvinced. Why?

1. The G-7's members simply dumped money into and, whether some refuse to admit it, took over part ownership of the banks. As I've said n many places I'm no friend for Capitalism., but one expects capitalists to behave like capitalists. Yet here are die-had capitalists behaving like socialists. All they did was drop money into a black hole -and mainly for show. For a while this may pacify the traders on markets, but somebody has to pay for that cash being used. That will not solve the problem over all: thawing credit. When that realization happens again, the panic will return.

2. Iceland. Yes, Iceland. The small country to the north is falling a part, and as James Kunstler said in his Blog today - Iceland is the poster-child of the whole system. As Iceland goes - so goes the world. Today the news reported that Icelander's have virtually emptied the shelves in the grocery stores - people have panicked and are scooping up food out of fear that stores - the nation will not have the credit to get it.

3. The problem of oil hasn't gone away. It was there when it was at high of about $147 per barrel and it's still there with the price in the 80's.

4. What James Kunstler (Cluster Fuck Nation) and Karl Denninger (the Market Ticker said) today:

First James:

" Iceland is the poster-child du jour for this. The little island nation of about 320,000 souls (roughly half of Vermont's population) lately grew a banking sector that thrived on something-for-nothing finance. In little more than a month, its banks have imploded like mini-death stars, leaving Iceland with a pariah currency. Since it has to import just about everything, and it suddenly finds itself unable to pay for imports, the people are stripping the grocery markets of whatever remains there now. You wonder what they will do in two weeks. Ten years from now there may be 32,000 of them left, subsisting on blubber sandwiches . . . In a few months, America will be full of angry economic losers. We're not the same nation that crowded around the old radio consoles for Franklin Roosevelt's fireside chats. Back then, we were mostly a highly-disciplined, regimented, industrial society full of citizens who mostly did what they were told to do, and mostly trusted in authority. Today we're a nation of tattooed barbarian "consumers" with no impulse control, a swollen sense of entitlement . . . think all the rejiggering in the world of numbers and indexes will not solve anything, and really only represents a kind obsessive-compulsive neurosis related to numerology that will do nothing to readjust our daily activities toward the production of things that have real and enduring value . . . [what] we can't face is the prospect that we might become something other than an industrial "consumer" society. My narrative includes the conviction that we will have trouble producing food for ourselves as petro-agriculture fails, and since society can't go on without food production, I see this activity coming back much closer to the center of our daily lives. We're not ready to think about that. The downside of our unreadiness may be that a lot of Americans will go hungry in the decade ahead . . . [n[one of this is an argument for despair, by the way, but it certainly invokes the need for steeply revised expectations and serious attention to a national "to-do" list. We're on our way to becoming another nation, whether we like it or not."

And Karl:

"The reaction in the credit markets was less than inspiring. The TED Spread and LIBOR came in, but not what should have happened. Both should have been flattened - they weren't.

This leaves us with an obvious - and uncomfortable question - what if this doesn't unlock the short-term credit markets? What if lending still doesn't happen, because banks still don't believe their counterparty is good - sovereign backing or not?

Well then we really do have a problem eh?

The resistance to forced truth-telling is maddening folks. It has been going on now for over a year, and until it stops, I just don't see the market normalizing. I know the counter-argument - "everyone is broke" - but if that's the truth, then let's get on with it, because we're only delaying the inevitable. You can't make the broke un-broke, you see. If we need to set up some state-sponsored banks (to do it FAST) and then spin them off in IPOs, letting the existing system die, then so be it.

Perhaps such a time would be a good opportunity to include The Fed in this sort of forced replacement, since they are and were complicit in the original destruction and have been part of the liars charade! After all, what Congress giveth via legislation, it can taketh away, no?

In any event don't get complacent; I see nothing here right now that suggests the "crisis is over", but the mouth-breathers in the media are of course cheering the market's rally.

Good for them.

We'll see how long it lasts.

Check Libor, the TED spread and the IRX tomorrow when our bond market is open for trading. You should get a decent idea of what's what at that point."

Therefore I will continue to hold to "The Cataclysm cometh . . . "

THE CATACLYSM COMETH . . . DAY 7

2008-10-12T23:00:00.003-04:00

DOW: CLOSED TODAY

Nothing new to report here. The stock market won't open until 9 AM tomorrow.

Was little peeved to find out that GM had already asked Ford over a month ago to merge and Ford decided to go it alone and remain independent. This means to me the somebody in GM's line saw something coming. So, Chrysler is tapped for it now. Will the Big 3 become the Big 2? Analysts say it's a 50/50 chance.

And the U.S. is poised take partial ownership in the banks. It makes me a laugh. I don't like capitalism at all (and socialism even less). Yet these capitalists are behaving very much like socialists.

The Nikkei should be open and running now. I checked it at Bloomberg, but the numbers looked the same as they did on Friday, even though it's well into Monday in Japan.

I'll ask again: will we see a "Black Monday" tomorrow? If we do, well at least the U.S Banks are closed for Columbus Day tomorrow and the ATM's only have so much money in 'em - can't be any real run on them then.

Back tomorrow.

GASOLINE: SAW IT AT $2.699!

THE CATACLYSM COMETH . . . DAY 6

2008-10-11T19:30:00.005-04:00

10/11/2008

THE DOW: CLOSED TODAY

THE VIX INDICATOR:

What is it?

It is the ticker symbol for the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, a popular measure of the implied volatility of S&P 500 index options. It represents one measure of the market's expectation of volatility over the next 30 day period.

It is also called THE FEAR INDEX.

A Short history of it:

1993 - The VIX Index was introduced in a paper by Professor Robert E. Whaley of Duke University.
2001 - Septemeber 11th (AKA 9-11): the Vix Spiked to 40.
2003 - Revised, more robust methodology for the VIX Index was introduced. The underlying index is changed from the CBOE S&P 100 Index (OEX) to the CBOE S&P 500 Index (SPX).
2004 - On March 26, 2004, the first-ever trading in futures on the VIX Index began on the CBOE Futures Exchange (CFE).
2006 - VIX options were launched in February 2006.
2008 - On October 9, 2008, the VIX reached an intraday high of 64.92.
2008 - On October 10, 2008 (YESTERDAY!!) - the VIX reached a record high of 72.92!!

Wealth Daily (wealthdaily.net):

" . . . there are no firm analyses that we can apply to suggest or even guess at where the VIX may top out. Despite how high the VIX currently is, market extremes have yet to weaken. Nor does it mean that underlying fears have been eased.

We simply have to wait out the "massacre" that could reveal Dow 7,000 before all is said and done.

Even Jim Cramer is scared. In case you missed it, here's what he had to say earlier...

"Whatever money you may need for the next five years, please take it out of the stock market right now, this week. I do not believe that you should risk those assets in the stock market right now."

New York Times:

"General Motors is in preliminary talks about a possible merger with Chrysler, a deal that could drastically remake the landscape of the auto industry by reducing the Big Three of Detroit automakers to the Big Two."

COMMENT:

I think that's enough blurbs to get the point across.

The VIX Indicator - which is new to me - shows that fear is really high and has not reached anywhere near a crescendo yet.

And the folks on Main Street - you can see it in their eyes: a sense of building desperation - just waiting for THE SHOE to drop.

The news about Chrysler and GM is just staggering. It was unthinkable just a few months ago. It's a portent I am sure: things are unraveling and quickly. And it could be a sign, too, of the coming end of the car culture.

Back tomorrow. I ask again: Monday is coming - will it be black?

GASOLINE PRICES: NO CHANGE STILL AT $2.829 TODAY.

THE CATACLYSM COMETH . . . DAY 5

2008-10-10T21:43:00.004-04:00

10/10/2008

DOW: -128 (but over 2000 points - aka 20% - over all)

Bloomberg:

"U.S. stocks fell for an eighth straight day in a whipsaw session that sent the Dow Jones Industrial Average to its biggest point swing ever."

Yahoo News (via the Associated Press):

"Wall Street capped one of its worst weeks ever with a wild session Friday that saw the Dow Jones industrials gyrate within a 1,000 point range before closing with a relatively mild loss and the Nasdaq composite index actually ending with a modest advance. Investors were still agonizing over frozen credit markets, but seven days of massive losses and the possibility of further government support for the markets tempted some investors late in the session."

Wall Street Journal:

Prez Bush doing his dance:

"The plan we are executing is aggressive. It is the right plan. It will take time to have its full impact. It is flexible enough to adapt as the situation changes and it is big enough to work . . . The plan we are executing is aggressive. It will take time to have its full impact. It is flexible enough to adapt as the situation changes. And it is big enough to work."

Here's what will work:

From Market Ticker:

"The people of this nation have sat on their hands and watched American Idol, now turning into the NFL, while lapping up the slop from Paulson, Bernanke and Bush about how the "economy is fundamentally strong", instead of showing up in Washington DC to protest or flooding the fax and phone lines demanding that Congress act to reign in the fraudsters.

Let me know how 'fundamentally strong' the economy is when you're walking the unemployment line and waiting for your turn at the soup kitchen for something to eat.

Entitlements? Forget 'em. They're gone. Social Security? Medicare? Done. Not today, but in the not-distant future. China, having gotten its money from the $700 billion "bailout", will ditch our Treasuries and refuse to buy more, as they will no more need to sterilize export dollars as our economy collapses. We in turn will be left to twist.

We deserve it, because we could have (but didn't) stand up to their demands that we cover a private dispute instead of handing over $700 billion we don't have. When (not if) the foreign flow of funds inward disappears due to the lack of need for these nations to recycle dollars, we will suddenly find that we have a nearly $800 billion a year hole in our federal budget - a hole that can only be filled by chopping Social Security, Medicare and the Military. Congratulations Congress (and America in general); you didn't really think you'd get away with that, did you?

George W. Bush will go down in history as the President who held the office while we drove our nation's financial system off the cliff, laughing all the while about flipping houses. And despite his protests to the contrary, the history books will record that it was his administration that removed the 12:1 leverage limits, sued New York to prevent them from clamping down on predatory lending, and willfully stuck its head in the sand while Bear Stearns prepared to blow up, never mind ignoring the problem after Bear detonated in February.

Henry Paulson will go down in history as the Treasury Secretary who sold out our nation to the Chinese and London Bankers, then fled the country with $500 million he "earned" creating and selling the very credit instruments that later blew up and sunk the nation.

The members of the House Financial Services Committee, the Senate Banking Committee and the Joint Economic Committee will each have special places reserved in the history books for refusing to deal with Ben Bernanke's raw power grab after Bear Stearns, an act that will ultimately be judged to be the single most important element of the crisis, as it forever put the market in a mood to expect "rule changes" at any time, precipitously damaging trust and liquidity.

The "no short" rule will ultimately be cited as the reason that the market crashed, being that there were no shorts to cover and thus hundreds of stocks, on that fateful day, went "no bid" and had their prices collapse to zero - all at once.

Oil will collapse in price to $20/bbl. Unfortunately nobody will have any money to buy gasoline, or a car, so it won't matter. As in The Depression millions of automobiles will be scrapped after being abandoned by their owners for lack of insurance and registration fee money. Cheap scooters will become the dominant form of transportation for those with jobs, as they will be all most people can afford.

As credit collapses distribution of food and other essentials will break down. Unable to access credit, trucking companies will be unable to get goods to market. The current distribution system for food requires travel of over 500 miles from production to consumption; this is untenable in a market where stable credit is unavailable. Food distribution will be severely impacted and in some areas may break down below critical levels.

Unemployment will reach 25% within two years. Median income will fall by 30% nationally. Foreclosures will reach 20 million homes. The government will step in with HOLC-style remediation but it won't matter - the unemployed won't be able to pay irrespective of the price.

House prices will fall to well under $100,000 nationally on a median basis but with lending all but non-existent you'll need 50% down. A few people will make out like bandits near the bottom, being able to buy up homes for $10,000 each in blocks of 10 at a time - for cash. 60% of America will be renters; nearly half of all homeowners will ultimately lose their homes to foreclosure.

Civil unrest will break out in major cities when incomes fall but the cost of food and essential services fail to come down materially, leaving millions of Americans hungry, broke and homeless. Unlike in the 1930s America will not quietly stand in soup lines - instead they will riot, loot and burn. The National Guard will be called up but will find it impossible to exert meaningful control without shutting down all commerce in the affected areas. The decision will be made to cordon off the cities and deny entry to anyone who does not live in that specific neighborhood, essentially shutting down commercial activity. GDP will fall by 30%.

The S&P 500 will fall to 150 and flatline, a 90% loss. CNBC and Bloomberg will cease broadcasting. Volume will fall to 10% of former levels.

Bleak outlook?

Yep.

Quite possible?

Yep.

Can it be stopped?

Yes, but not for much longer.

The markets are perilously close to a tipping point where they will collapse, after which all of the above will come to pass, and Congressional action (or inaction) will be irrelevant.

Congress will then have to face the people, as will President Bush and his Cabinet, and may God have mercy on our Republican form of government, because history shows that when government mismanages things to this degree and refuses to respond to the will of the people, a "messiah" generally appears with a "solution" - but there will be "compromises."

Like your freedom.

To fix the problem trust must be restored. To restore trust you must stop the lying, expose the liars, prosecute and jail them all, and stop changing the rules in the middle of the game.

This must happen now. Today. Immediately. Not tomorrow, not next week, not after a series of hearings.

Right now.

Market participants must be able to know that when they engage in a transaction it will be transparent, handled fairly, and their rights will be protected.

Our politicians must stop demanding the impossible - that home prices "levitate." House prices cannot be maintained at more than 3x incomes - it simply can't be done. We must encourage home prices to contract to sustainable, affordable levels quickly and efficiently.

Mortgages must return to 30 year fixed notes, 20% down, no more than 36% DTI. No government-linked paper in any GSE may issue outside these guidelines. We must reliquify the mortgage market, and this is the only way to do it - by writing only sustainable mortgages.

Strong consumer protection laws must be written that bar negative balance auto and home loans. The practice of 'rolling over' an old car loan into a new one, producing an instant 20% or more deficiency against the vehicles value, must end.

Usury laws must be re-imposed, limiting credit card and other consumer loan interest to no more than a reasonable spread over funding costs. Yes, this will limit credit to less-worthy borrowers. So be it. Unbridled credit got us here, and we must prevent it from happening again.

The excess, unsustainable debt in the system must be defaulted. Whether held by corporations or individuals, it must be purged from the system. Those firms and individuals that are bankrupt must be so declared and their assets liquidated, so they can start over and the market can clear."

COMMENT:

The Weekend got here and we're still here. Miracle? Nope. Monday's to come - will it be a black one? I believe the time is nigh - from what I've seen - and irregardless of Mr. President Bush says.

GASOLINE PRICE: A DROP! SAW IT AT 2.829!

INTERIM OBSERVATION: THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING!

2008-10-10T06:08:00.004-04:00

Interim observation: the sky is falling; the sky is falling! And it really is!

10/10/08:

The Nikkei (Japan's stock exchange): -881 +

Culled from Bloomberg (this morning):

"It will take a significant change in leadership of economic policy and very radical, coordinated policy actions among all advanced and emerging-market economies to avoid this economic and financial disaster . . . [a]t this stage the risk of an imminent stock-market crash -- like the one-day collapse of 20 percent plus in U.S. stock prices in 1987 cannot be ruled out . . . [t]he financial system is breaking down, panic and lack of confidence in any counterparty is sharply rising and investors have totally lost faith in the ability of policy authorities to control the meltdown . . . [t]he world is experiencing the simultaneous bursting of housing, equity, bond, credit, commodity, hedge-fund and private-equity bubbles . . . even better- performing economies such as Brazil, Russia, India and China are at risk of 'a hard landing' . . .

COMMENT:

". . . [t]he risk of an imminent stock-market crash. . ." - WITH A LOSS IN VALUE OF 20% OR MORE - :. . .cannot be ruled out" . . .

The total value of the Stock Market (the Dow) - stands right now (about two and half hours before it opens) at 8579.19. A 20% loss would be a drop in over 1700 points. Yesterday I joked that we might see a 2000 point drop. Now I'm wondering whether that's low!!

THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING!

THE CATACLYSM COMETH . . . DAY 4

2008-10-09T21:52:00.006-04:00

10/09/2008

DOW DOWN: -678 +

Bloomberg:

"U.S. stocks slid and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell below 9,000 for the first time since 2003 as higher borrowing costs and slower consumer spending spurred concern carmakers, insurers and energy companies will be the next victims of the credit crisis.

General Motors Corp. tumbled 31 percent to a 58-year low and Ford Motor Co. slumped 22 percent as the outlook for car sales worsened. XL Capital Ltd. lost 54 percent and led a gauge of insurers to a 13-year low on concern investment losses will curb results. Exxon Mobil Corp.'s biggest drop in 21 years accelerated the Dow's decline in the final hour of trading as oil retreated below $85 a barrel. Morgan Stanley plunged 26 percent as short sellers returned to the market after a three- week ban.

``People have lost faith in everything,'' said Philip Orlando, who helps manage $350 billion as chief equity market strategist at Federated Investors Inc. in New York. ``We're dealing with an investment community of atheists right now. Valuations no longer matter.''

International Hearld Tribune:

"Having tried without success to unlock frozen credit markets, the U.S. Treasury Department is considering taking ownership stakes in many U.S. banks . . ."

Washington Post:

"President Bush, who has said little publicly during this week's prolonged market dive, will make a statement about the crisis tomorrow morning in the Rose Garden, the White House said late today. "

The Independent:

"The financial crisis in Iceland shows no sign of easing, with the government forced to announce the nationalisation of the country's largest bank yesterday. After taking control of Kaupthing, the Icelandic authorities were also forced to suspend dealing in all 15 companies listed on the country's stock exchange until Monday."

James Howard Kunstler (from May of 2008 - now made current by current event):

"It's hard to predict how long these institutions at the heart of our economic system can linger in the ' far from normal' limbo of pretending that money has not been defaulted out of existence. . . it's hard to escape the conclusion that we're at most months away from the brutal recognition that Wall Street is bankrupt and, by extension, the U.S . . ."

COMMENT:

All this flurry of activity, including efforts to stave off the inevitable and calm the masses, reminds me of the Looney Tunes cartoon where the pigeon trainer set up all the equipment for his trained birds to entertain his audience. Then he opens the cage containing the birds expecting them to go to it - and instead they all fly out the window. His reaction: to break into some silly dance because he has no more show to give. And tomorrow morning President Bush gets to do his dance . . .

The fat lady, I'm told, is still singing . . . but I think she's almost finished . . .

I hope many of you out there are slowly stocking up on food as you 'll probably need it in the weeks to come . . .

GASOLINE IS HOLDING AT $2.999!

THE CATCLYSM COMETH . . . DAY 3

2008-10-08T19:46:00.004-04:00

10/08/2008

YAHOO NEWS

"A stock market empowered by an emergency interest rate cut tried to find some stability Wednesday, rallying several times before another late-day drop left Wall Street down for the sixth straight day. Still, the pullback, while fed by comments from Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, was milder than the massive declines of earlier in the week . . ."

"I'm scared, really scared," said Cathy Ivcich, 45, a Chicago real estate agent. "People have stopped buying houses. I've got a lot of buyers who have secure jobs or who have money, and I'm sure I could get them a loan. But they're just scared."

BLOOMBERG:

DOW CLOSED DOWN MORE THAN 168 - 1600 POINTS IN SEVERAL DAYS

"U.S. stocks fell for a sixth day after Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said more banks may collapse and unprecedented global interest-rate cuts failed to convince investors the economy will avoid a recession . . . '[t]he uncomfortable reality is that this mess is going to take more time than anyone wants to come to grips with,'' said Matthew Kaufler, a fund manager at Rochester, New York-based Clover Capital Management Inc., which oversees $2.6 billion. 'For the first time in couple of decades, we have the prospect of a consumer recession.' "

GUARDIAN - UNITED KINGDOM:

Regarding Iceland:

"Are you depressed by the financial meltdown? The Daily Mail, true to form, is basking in gloom this morning. Its editorial wails: About one thing there can no longer be any dispute: homes and livelihoods all over the free world are in greater peril than at any time since the war. But things could be worse – we could be in Iceland. The one thing apparently keeping that country's tottering economy from complete collapse is an influx of money from foreign journalists flying into Reykjavik by the dozen . . .

Now, suddenly, everything may be gone, the economy wiped out with the same cataclysmic devastation".

Comment - Iceland: may be the microcosm of the world itself.

We'll have to wait and see

AND THE PRICE OF GASOLINE: SAW IT AT $2.999 - ALMOST A TEN CENT DROP FROM YESTERDAY!

THE CATCLYSM COMETH . . . DAY 2

2008-10-07T21:47:00.006-04:00

DOW AT CLOSING: DOWN OVER 508 POINTS!

Statement from Leon Cooperman who manages a $6 Billion dollar hedge fund:

"We've approached the edge of the cliff. Do we go over the cliff or begin to recede? History says we recede, but there's no guarantee."

Comment:

Good question! All that can be said is - we shall see.

One final note: saw gasoline at $3.079 today! 15 days ago I paid $3.869! Nearly an eighty cent drop - and that's in just over two weeks. I've heard of price reductions - but wow! That's got to be demand desturciton or fears of it from marketeers! It'll be interesting to see how far it drops.

THE CATACLYSM COMETH . . .

2008-10-06T14:47:00.005-04:00

Yahoo News (10/06/08):

"Investors around the world have come to the sobering realization that the Bush administration's $700 billion rescue plan won't work . . .

Despair about a weakening global economy is sweeping across Wall Street, propelling the Dow Jones industrials down more than 800 points . . .

. . . [t]he credit markets remain stagnant, a sign that banks are too afraid to lend . . ."

James Howard Kunstler (10/06/08):

"We may soon be hearing the declaration of various "emergency" measures involving the allocation of food and the rationing of oil products. The Big Bailout of last week may be partially rescinded as it becomes obvious that it has had no effect . . ."

AOL had a brief headline, that suddenly disappeared, that grocery stores were taking food off the shelves.

THE CATACLYSM COMETH . . methinks!

I hope I'm wrong!!

BAILOUT PASSES! AMERICAN TAXPAYER SCREWED!

2008-10-05T08:55:00.006-04:00

Well it passed on Friday - 10/03/08 - one of the greatest swindles of all time: $700 billion given by the taxpayers to rescue the Wall Street buzzards who mainly got us into this mess.

I say mainly 'cause I ain't letting you, most of fellow Americans, off the hook either. Yes, there were predatory lenders out there for several years, but it took your chicken scratch on the dotted line to make the loan real. I guess being offered two or three times the value of your home in a mortgage (for you homeowners) was just too hard to just say "No!" to? And the ones who got mortgages to live out in the sprawl in the burbs with payment near or at half to two-thirds your income was just to hard to resist, right? POSH! I own my home (in the city itself) and I got fist-fulls of those offers every week for months and months and months. I just shredded them as they came in.

Well those tycoons are now laughing all the way to bank after having swindled you again. You can think about that when they've loaded up with gold bullion and move out to a land of bucolic delights - behind electrified fences with razor wire looped along the top or thick stonewalls with armed guards and pit-bulls to protect them. They know the fan is going to hit the shit soon and they know they'll be sitting square in the the public's bull's eye if they don't get out now.

Don't look for this 'bailout' to bail anybody out soon either. The tough times have to come first and there's no guarantee it will work.

I assert it was flushing good money down the toilet.

Here's a comment from today's Yahoo news that I think confirms it:

" . . . several hurdles could trip up the plan. For starters, even when the Treasury starts buying bad assets, some banks may hoard the cash they receive in return until they see how the plan pans out. That has the potential to make the lending logjam worse, said Vincent R. Reinhart, former director of the Federal Reserve's monetary affairs division.

"They may sit on the sidelines and wait to see (the bailout) get some traction. The problem is if everybody sits on the sidelines, nobody gets in the game. It's a risk," he said.

It also creates a vicious cycle: No trust means no lending; tight credit means it's harder to buy a home; the more difficult it is to buy or sell a home, the further home prices will fall; and the further prices drop, the more foreclosures there will be."

There it is: housing prices need to start climbing and yet there still is no sight of bottom yet with the downward spiral. It will be months and months before anything really takes affect - if it will take affect at all. And by the time we see it won't work - the ship of state will be too close to the rocks to verve off.

One final comment on the bailout: 'twas fear that motivated many in the House to vote for it I think. The media didn't want to bruit it at all, but there was deep concern among those those lawmakers that if the PREZ didn't get what he wanted he was ready to declare martial law and seize what he needed. There are troops on our soil right now set to use to help him do just that. The DEFCON level is set lower now that he's been temporarily satisfied, but the dogs of war can be set loose on us at any time 'W' wants to.

God help us all for that's about the only One left who can get us out of this mess. Do we deserve it? NO! But God has tendency to show mercy to them who have f*@$@d themselves!

BAILOUT FAILS! ECONOMIC HURRICANE CONTINUES

2008-09-29T15:21:00.002-04:00

Well the last time I posted Hurricane Ike was wreaking havoc along the Texas Gulf Coast. Ike is long gone, but Texas is still recovering and the death toll from the hurricane still isn't final. I've read 400 people are still missing and it's beginning to look like a good number were just washed out to sea - victims of the foolishness instead of fleeing as they should. I feel for their families who are worried to death about them. I do hope and pray they get closure in some way.

BUT on the same weekend we had an economic hurricane strike: the economy of the U.S. began to tank- caused by the mortgage crisis which is now a credit crisis. The stock market tumbled and continues to tumble. To prevent the bottom from falling out President Bush proposed giving Wall Street $700 billion - virtually a blank check - to save them from their own folly.

The Prez was asking WE THE PEOPLE to loan money to the rich buggers who have scahrewed us all while pocketing hundreds of millions of dollars over the last several years.

Lots of drama passed in the last week and today - the compromise bill failed in the house - as it should have. A bi-partisan vote showed that the American people refused to believe the Prez's bait and switch.

Here's what I posted at the Toledo Blade's article on the matter:

"Glad it failed! I called Ms. Kaptur's office last week and left a message requesting that she vote "No" on the matter. I must have been among many who called and left the same message because she was among the 95 Democrats who voted no.

Now the real work can be done to get things done properly. It must occur in such a way that Main Street not have to pay for the mistakes, driven by greed, that Wall Street made. Responsibility and accountability must rule here - probably with some getting some long jail terms for all malfeasance involved here.

Finally, this is just another sign to me that we Americans must redefine the way we live; redefine exactly what the American Dream is. Perhaps with the crisis sure to come now people shall finally be willing to do just that."

Change has to come one way or another. Either it comes when faced with such high gasoline prices that we change or we change because we won't have the money, via credit, to buy the gasoline at all.

The time is nigh; the hour has come. Either we do right or we go down. Either folks start living within their means or, just like the missing from Hurricane Ike's winds and storm surge - we'll all get washed out to sea. Which shall it be, people?

GALVESTON NOT DESTROYED! OIL IN AREA SPIKES TO $3.999

2008-09-13T21:28:00.007-04:00

I'll just let Dr. Jeff Masters of Weather Underground (www.wunderground.com) speak for this one:

"Galveston is not destroyed

Although Ike caused heavy damage by flooding Galveston with a 12-foot storm surge, the city escaped destruction thanks to its 15.6-foot sea wall (the wall was built 17 feet high, but has since subsided about 2 feet). The surge was able to flow into Galveston Bay and flood the city from behind, but the wall prevented a head-on battering by the surge from the ocean side. Galveston was fortunate that Ike hit the city head-on, rather than just to the south. Ike's highest storm surge occurred about 50 miles to the northeast of Galveston, over a lightly-populated stretch of coast. Galveston was also lucky that Ike did not have another 12-24 hours over water. In the 12 hours prior to landfall, Ike's central pressure dropped 6 mb, and the storm began to rapidly organize and form a new eyewall. If Ike had had another 12-24 hours to complete this process, it would have been a Category 4 hurricane with 135-145 mph winds that likely would have destroyed Galveston. The GFDL model was consistently advertising this possibility, and it wasn't far off the mark. It was not clear to me until late last night that Ike would not destroy Galveston and kill thousands of people. Other hurricane scientists I conversed with yesterday were of the same opinion."

---------------

Comment: they got lucky. The storm tracked, at the last moment, northeast of where it was expected to hit. This reduced the surge. Therefore, reports of the Galveston sea wall being under water were either exaggerated or misstated. One doesn't want to wish it were worse, but this will now cause many who fled Ike (and Gustav) to think they don't have to in the future. Silly humans - all the signs that the inevitable will happen again soon are there- and not in a hundred years.

HOWEVER, I saw gasoline around here surge: one station was at $3.899 and another was at $3.999. It may go higher, but my experience is that once again most will gut-it-out and wait for the price to fall -which it probably will. Silly human beings, etc . . .

Hurricane season looks like it winding down now. There's nothing out there near Africa or the Cape Verdes or down in the bowels of the southern Gulf of Mexico right now.

WE got lucky despite the nation being pummeled by six of the ten tropical storms we've had so far this year. Yes, there were no Cat. 5's. The big'uns (Gustav and Ike) did hit Cat. 4 but were at Cat. 2 when they hit the U.S.

We have another chance. We will take it? Like the schoolkid who didn't study for the big test and then got a reprieve when teacher postponed it, we'll just go back outside to play and worry about it only when it's at the eleventh hour. So, nah - I don't think so.

I'm getting kind of jaded about the people's willingness to change. It only looks like something real bad will cause it. I guess Galveston would have had to have been flattened and gasoline surged to $4.509 for a two or three months and maybe, just maybe, people would have been shocked out their own delusions about what's happening into doing something.

It's too bad that the 'fridge has to be empty and kids crying for food before mama and daddy will do anything to change the way they live rather than do that now and avoid the unnecessary mess.

YIKES IKE STRIKES! GALVESTON INUNDATED! HUSTON FLOODED! THOUSAND AT RISK! POSSIBLY MANY DEAD!

2008-09-13T08:05:00.013-04:00

Yikes! Ike strikes! After devastating Cuba a few days ago as a Cat. 4 hurricane , Ike - a near Cat. 3 hurricane - roared ashore at about 2:10 AM smack into Galveston, Texas. A huge storm surge of 20 to 25 feet was reported and this swept right over the 17 foot seawall Galveston set up after the devastating hurricane that killed 8,000 on September 8, 1900.

The picture I put here, from the Toledo Blade's 9/13/08 edition, seems to symbolize Ike. It's hard to believe it 's real and not some outtake from a TV show or a movie. Yet there it is!

As for the victims - nobody knows yet - emergency personnel can't get into Galveston where it is reported that 40% of the population decided to hunker down than flee. 60,000 people are said to have stayed on this sea island city now completely under water. I do hope these folks survived some how and there is no repeat of the disaster of 1900.

Ike is still a Cat. 2 storm and northeast of Houston and a few miles southwest of Livingston, Texas at this hour. His eye is beginning to close up - and indication he's losing strength. But he's packing winds of 110 miles an hour - a borderline Cat. 3.

As for the petroleum industry: looks like those huge refineries took a major hit. 14% of the gasoline produced for the country comes out of there. The effect won't be immediate, but prices are certain to rise on account of it. This could cause a strange phenomenon: oil's price at or below $100 per barrel while the price of gasoline surges past $4.00 per gallon. Yesterday, gasoline in Toledo was around $3.759 to $3.799.

How high it will go depends upon whether the local yokels there who run these plants looked at and learned from the devastation of Katrina in 2005. But it's too soon to say and one factor is that no major hurricane has struck this area in decades. Complacency, therefore, may have effected people here who really had no idea what a hurricane can do as they never experienced one.

Stay tuned.

GUSTAV IS GOING; HANNAH'S A HURRICANE; YIKES IT'S IKE!

2008-09-01T18:11:00.015-04:00

Had to work to today on Labor Day - it was either work it or get no pay - so this is my first chance to really comment.

Well Gustav struck land about S.W. of the Big Easy in a town whose name makes the same sound as the litle bird in the famous wall clock: coo-coo (Cocodrie, La).

He hit as a bare Cat. 3 and quickly went down to Cat.2 and right now he's doing 80 MPH and gaining pressure - meaning he'll spin-out (to the northwest) falling to tropical storm level then depression and dissipation.

Word has it that the levies in the B.E. held - only water lapping up over the tops.

Only one person has died so far - in a car accident. I really hope that's all . So, it looks like the evac. worked. "W" is sitting in Texas - shirt sleeves rolled up like the workin' man ain't - watching and out yelling "Good Job" every hour or so. Makes a nice pic for the Media - and for the GOPers' in Denver.

Kudos to all those who took responsiblity this time on getting the people out -a long, long way from the big "DUUHHH" three years ago with one finger in the corner of the mouth and thumb up the ass.

Gas prices have stayed stable -$3.449 and oil dropped down to many weeks low: $111.22 per barrel. That's a disappointment because as long as it drops people ain't gonna change.

Looks like Gus had little or no effect on those prices. Ya'll who are driving Hummers or Jeep Nitros - and even you too Minivan Mamma - can stop turning blue now and breath again. Hell you might see gas at under $3.00 in two or three months.

Hanna (or Hannah - take yer pick) has ramped to a hurricane - holding the same wind speed as Gus: 80, but she's no real threat to Gasoline Alley - the forecasters put 'er hitting somewhere from Georgia to North Carolina later in the week. Like a lot of women, she's just too erratic to say where's she's goin'. East coasters should watch this babe closely, though.

Two others'uns are crossing the ocean now.

One was just Tropical Storm 9 a little while ago, but has YIKES - become Ike. The hurricane computer models, interestingly, put Ike on the same track as the big Kat that struck just over 3 years ago. We'll have to watch him and see where he goes.

The second, from the viewpoint of the U.S. looks like a dud - it's predicted to fling out to sea.

Two African waves are out there and one looks like it could really b e something in about week or two.

All in all - I agree with Dr. Jeff Masters on Gus: we was lucky. Cuba saved our ass. If Gus had passed just a few miles west of the land of King Fidel, we might be scraping the Big E and it's neighbors up off the pavement like we did in 2005. I do hope the people down there understand this and don't start reviving any ideas of invincibility like they had before Katrina. It's only a matter of time - and with Global Warming becoming a sure thing (the Arctic for the second time in history - the first time was last year - has thawed and a Northwest Passage is open again) - hurricanes hitting more frequently is a likely certainty for the foreseeable future.

GUSTAV LOST STRENGTH OVER NIGHT -NOW STRENGTHENING

2008-08-31T14:38:00.009-04:00

Update: first chance I've had to post since last night

Gustav really got whacked coming off Cuba. I saw his eye begin to fall apart on radar, but didn't take close note. By morning he'd lost a lot of strength.

In fact radar image at 8 AM showed the Big G had winds of 115 mph - 4 miles above the Cat. 3 threshold. The radar image was barely there.

Current radar (2 PM) shows him at 120 mph. The radar image is still not well defined, but he's getting stronger.

For a while there I thought Gus would fizzle - turn into bare Cat 2. or strong Cat. 1 storm - and for the people of the B.G. - that's barely a gentle blow which they'd have stayed with. I am sure NOAA and other forecasters would have gotten howls of scorn and derision had Gus folded before land fall.

BUT I don't think that will be. Gustav is still a Cat. 3 storm and quite dangerous. Forecasts now put him at getting up to Cat. 4 and staying that way until land fall - now expected to be between 7 PM 09/01 and 2 AM 09/02.

New Orleans is reported to be 'like a ghost town" as most of its population did what they should have and fled.

One final note: the Prez is canceling his show at the GOP's convention (I wonder if they nixed the telethon?). Bush'll be flying down to Texas to monitor the situation.

MAYOR OF THE BIG EASY: GET YOUR BUTTS OUTTA HERE NOW!

2008-08-30T22:27:00.003-04:00

New Orlean's Mayor Ray Nagin finally got the message and here's what said, per Reuters:

"I must tell you, this is the mother of all storms. You need to be concerned and you need to get your butts moving and out of New Orleans right now."

Finally he got it. An evacuation will be ordered, but not physically enforced tomorrow - Sunday, 08/31/08.

Glad ya finally got it Mayor Nagin!

GUSTAV EXITS CUBA; THE GOP MULLS TURNING CONVENTION INTO 'GUSTAV RELIEF TELETHON'!

2008-08-30T22:06:00.003-04:00

Update: there's no update yet on the Gustav's latest state. The next run should be posted by NOAA and other dependent on it, at 0300 UTC/GMT - about 11:00 PM EDT.

BUT a radar run at at 10:00 PM EDT at www.wundeground.com shows Gustav's eye has just emerged of Cuba's coast. He's still a Cat. 4 storm with wind clocked at 150 mph and moving northwesterly. This means Gustav in now over the open and very warm water of the Gulf of Mexico. There is now a very good chance he'll ramp up to Cat. 5 hurricane by Sunday afternoon.

_____________________

GOP MULLS TURNING THEIR CONVENTION INTO A 'HURRICANE RELIEF TELETHON'!

I take note that the the Digital Jorurnal (www.digitaljournal.com) has posted an article stating that McCain and his fellow GOP bros. are considering revamping their Convention in Denver into a giant Hurricane Relief telethon.

Oh -My-God!! This is such shameless pandering to the public that it just wants to make me puke my guts up.

I ain't voting for Barre O or Johnny Mc, but this is really in very just plain - well I haven't a word to describe how I feel about it . . . but boy to use someone's misfortune to advance one's political ends seems very un-American to me.

FEMA: HURRICANE GUSTAV TO BECOME SUPER HURRICANE CAT. 5

2008-08-30T17:25:00.012-04:00

The Federal Emergency Management Agency, according to the International Tribune, has stated that Hurricane Gustav will soon become a super hurricane - Category 5 - with winds in excess of 156 mph.

At this hour Gus is about to strike Cuba a good'un and is expected to leave devastation in its wake. His winds are 150 mph - just 6 miles short of the Cat. 5 threshold.

The Big Easy's mayor, despite all that's been said about Gus, still has not issued an evacuation order. The word is he's waiting until tomorrow.

However B.E's people, with horrific memories of Katrina only three years ago, are already beating a path out. Further the local interstate has been reset to one-way traffic - northbound only. And further, the sick and those without their own transportation are being moved out of harm's way.

Looks like NOBODY wants a repeat of the Katrina disaster - in terms of loss of life.

Still - I can't imagine why the mayor of New Orleans won't hit issue an evac order. He needs to. After all he's got everything to gain and too much to loose.

GUSTAV RAMPED UP TO 125 MPH & STRENGTHING; DR. MASTERS' COMMENT SLAMMED

2008-08-30T12:17:00.019-04:00

Another Gustav update: he's up to 125 mph and strengthening. The National Hurricane Center says he'll hit the Louisiana coast as a Cat. 4 (winds greater than 131 mph to 156 mph). There is a slight chance Big Gus will blow up to Cat. 5 (winds > 156 mph) in the middle of the Gulf.

Dr. Masters' comment on the leaving New Orleans ASAP apparently isn't sitting easy with some folks in the Big Easy. In today's first blog he said:

"I've been criticized by some for recommending people evacuate New Orleans, since that's not my job, and for saying "it's not natural" to live in a city that lies partially below sea level."

He apologized for that.

But also said "I'm not an emergency manager, but I am a hurricane scientist. I understand the danger this storm poses better than most. The risk of staying in New Orleans is unacceptable. This is a huge and dangerous storm that has already killed . . ."

YOU GO DR. MASTERS!! YOU HAVE NOTHING TO APOLOGIZE ABOUT!

Predicted land fall is Sept. 2 at 2:00 AM. That's less than 46 hours out. Dr. Masters stated that at 60 hours it was time to start the "get the hell outta there" preps going (my words in quotes NOT his).

Will the people of the B.E. listen? I do hope so or if not - let's hope, for their sake, that Gustav makes that 'other' predicted turn in the Gulf and slams Corpus Christi instead - which will probably be able to sustain the hit better than the untried new fangled thingies the U.S. Govt. put in over the last three years.

COMMENT ON MASTERS' SLAMMING:

Not surprised a this. Just like the reaction to Peak Oil and Global Warming people would rather hold tight to the main mast of a damned ship that is about to be swamped. Fact is New Orleans probably should never have been built in the first place. For cripes sake - it's in a bowl made of earth right at the edge of the sea with the sea's water lapping at the top edge and it's in a river's flood plain too to boot. So, we maybe should start calling the Big Easy the Big Duh instead. Amazing how folks actually start to think that just because we have had two mild years that this wouldn't happen again. It will be interesting to see the asinine comments that will crop up if the B.E. gets missed by this bullet. If the bullet hits, and hits really hard, maybe finally people will get the message: you can't live here; it's not natural.

THE BIG G - GOT EVEN BIGGER

2008-08-30T08:09:00.007-04:00

Just a short update: Hurricane Gustav is now Cat. 3 storm - winds are at 110 mph. He's predicted to become Cat 4. within the next 24 hours. Will he become a Cat.5? Most forecasters say no, but ain't leaving out the chance.

The Big G got even bigger over night.

The forecast is still for 'im to strike the Gulf Coast in Louisiana.

I hope YOU denizens of N.O. are getting out en masse NOW. If'n ya wait's another 24 hours you may have to hunker down in a bunker and pray.

THIS PIC AINT PURTY

2008-08-29T22:43:00.006-04:00

The above pic is from Bloomberg - and it don't paint a purty one. It shows exactly what it is going to be hit in terms of oil infrastructure.

'Course the big question is: will the big 'G' cause gasoline to shoot up past and well beyond $4.00 per gallon?

The oil speculators think not. Current price for oil is around $115.00 per barrel.

So, why isn't the price just climbing?

The guess is that this time around the U.S. won't be caught with it's pants down like it was when Katrina struck (three years ago today by the way).

Also:

- Some oil reserves have been released
- The oil rig runners have battened down
- Things appear more organized than it was on 2005
- Some of the essential peeps are probably gonna hang-ten the last minute too (though I'm sure the media won't mention that)

So, will we see $4.50 per gallon or even $5 after Gus smashes in the gasoline alley. Have to change my mind here -probably not. Maybe it'll push up near or at $4.00 - and then drop again.

Course my retreat on the price could be wrong, but for now it's hunker down and keep a weather eye out for the Gus to show up and do his worst.

METEOROLOGIST JEFF MASTERS' MESSAGE TO NEW ORLEANS: GET OUTTA TOWN BEFORE SUNDOWN!

2008-08-29T22:00:00.007-04:00

Meteorologist Jeff Masters of Weather Underground (www.wunderground.com) is advising the people of New Orleans to flee - like - yesterday - like ASAP - like - before the sun goes down.

We all know why: Gustav is coming and boy is he gonna be pissed when he gets there!

Here's some selected words from the his latest Blog:

"You live at the bottom of a bowl, much of it below sea level . . . [nature] wants to fill up this bowl with huge quantities of . . . sea water . . . [So], there's no sense messing with a major hurricane . . . tonight is a good time to start evacuating . . ."

I do hope the people of the Big Easy beat it - this mother of a storm ain't gonna play no games. It's already re-hurricaned and ramped up to 80 MPH. The forecast is for it grow in size as soon as it hits the open waters of the Gulf of Mexico and may even blow up into a super hurricane ( Cat. 5 storm with winds in excess of 156 MPH)!

HERE COMES HANNAH! GUSTAV ABOUT TO 'HURRICANE IT' AGAIN

2008-08-28T13:24:00.003-04:00

HERE COMES HANNAH! SHE'S HEADED TO FLORDIA - AND BEYOND!

And Gustav - he's ramping up to near hurricane strength - yet again and preparing to rape Jamaica. Then it's on to Gulf Mexico and the nation's Gulf Coast with 'Gasoline Alley' right in his sights.

THE END IS NEAR . . .

2008-08-28T07:47:00.008-04:00

NO! Gustav hasn't struck yet. He couldn't have moved that fast!

What I means is the end is near for free credit to buy your fuel. Why do I say that, you I ask?

This morning - and for the very first time - I had a choice of paying by credit or by cold hard cash for my gas. BP's station at the corner of Secor and Central had TWO prices for regular gasoline: $3.559 (cash only) or $3.639.

Now I usually pay by way of credit/debit - have done so for several years now. But of course, the money is already there - it's just debited from my account. However, many these days, with current economics giving them a good hard thumping, are buying their gas on credit - until the credit card companies revoke their cards for non-payment.

Gas station owners, of course, have always taken a bath when comes to selling gas. If they didn't run convenience stores to sell folks cigs, beer, wine, and groceries they'd go broke. My guess is that it's just getting too costly to allow the credit card use to go on.

So, I expect THE END IS NEAR . . . for use of credit cards - and not only for gasoline, but also for many other things. Why do I say that? I can read the signs! Like the one on one of two cash registers at my favorite McDonald's at Door and Collingwood that says "Cash Only". I asked the manager there about three weeks ago what with this. He said the credit card machine was broke and would be fixed 'soon'. Gee my definition of 'soon', in this instance, is like - two three days - not three weeks or more. My guess: the owner of that particular franchise is also taking a bath with credit cards and so is forcing credit card users, like me, to stand 'at the back the bus' and wait in one line while cash holders move about freely.

I'll further surmise that in the not too distant future I'll walk into a Micky D's or ride up in the gas station (near empty) and be told - in a very gruff fashion - "SORRY CASH ONLY!"

That of course will be the fate of most of us who are part of the unwashed masses. But not everyone will share that fate right away.

Now take my everyman - the deeply entrenched member of the petite bourgeois middle class (PBMC). He shops at Costco. They have a gas station - but don't advertise their prices. Why? Well the land of the elite, that retail refuge of the PBMC charges an annual cheap fee to get cheaper prices on goods and fuel than all the filthy fuckers out there. So, of course keeping it all in the family - the fee paying family - part of the deal is ya get privacy if ya shop there. So, I do wonder what my everyman, ever the seeker for privilege and place, is actually paying for petrol?

No matter! 'Cause, I do imagine that even Costco won't be a refuge much longer - it's just a small rock a little higher off the ground, that will be swamped one day soon, too!

Yes, folks, ya better get ready for THE END IS NEAR . . .

GUSTAV TO HALT PRODUCTION OF 1.2 MILLION BARRELS OF OIL PER DAY

2008-08-28T06:07:00.002-04:00

From Bloomberg:

"Tropical Storm Gustav may halt 1.2 million barrels a day of crude oil production if it strikes the U.S. Central Gulf Coast, CNBC reported, citing a weather forecaster.

There is a 70 to 75 percent likelihood of this happening, according to Aaron Studwell of Weather Insight, who expects the storm to strike the Gulf as a Category 3 hurricane, CNBC said on its Web site.

Gustav may arrive close to Lake Charles and Henry Hub, the collection point for gas pipelines, Studwell told CNBC. Between 40 to 45 percent of the region's natural gas production may be at risk of long-term damage, according to CNBC. "

______________________

Right now Gustav is 80 miles east northeast of Kingston, Jamaica and moving at about 8 mph; is packing 50 mph winds and is strengthening. NOAA predicts it will hit the Gulf Coast near New Orleans (i.e. right in the heart of gasoline alley) on Tuesday, Sept. 2nd at about 2 AM as a Cat. 3 Hurricane packing winds 111 to 130 mph.

GUSTAV - THE IMPACT THAT WILL LIKELY BE

2008-08-27T22:11:00.011-04:00

From Dr. Jeff Master's Blog at Weather Underground dated 4:42 PM today (www.underground.com):

"Gustav's potential impact on the oil and gas industry

The price of U.S. crude oil has jumped about 2%, and the price of U.S. natural gas has increased 11% in the past two days, in anticipation that Gustav might rip through the oil and gas production areas of the Gulf of Mexico. About 25% of U.S. crude oil and 15% of its natural gas are produced in the Gulf of Mexico. As seen in Figure 3, the oil production areas are concentrated along the Louisiana and Texas coast. If Gustav makes a landfall on the right side of its cone of uncertainty, in Alabama or the Florida Panhandle, the oil and gas infrastructure might not be significantly affected. However, most of the cone of uncertainty lies in the major oil and gas producing areas, and I give a 60% chance that Gustav will significantly hurt oil and gas production in the Gulf."

______________________

60% chance folks! That's real liberal for a cautious meteorologist. That's fitting. No matter what, it looks like a rough ride for the folks around New Orleans (the current storm prediction track puts Gustav there or near there by Monday, September 1). If he holds course it could very well be a Black Monday for the residents of the Big Easy who are still not recovered from Katrina and a Black Monday for the rest of our oil addicted nation.

Hmmm - I wonder if my guess at $4.50 per gallon as a post-Gustav impact was low? Gasoline around here is at about $3.699. As I recall gasoline was at about $1.859 just before Katrina struck. Within 14 days after Katrina had done her worst, gasoline went to $3.239. So, given Dr. Master's forecast, I think there is a chance that all of us just might see gasoline crack the $5.00 mark. I guess we'll all personally feel and know the impact in the next 10 to 14 days.

I'd recommend you all party hardy and really blow your wad during this Labor Day holiday 'cause it's likely to be the last chance you'll get for a long time to come.

GUSTAV WHACKS HAITI; MOVING ON GULF & GAS

2008-08-27T10:10:00.005-04:00

This is the latest satellite photo from NOAA.

Hurricane Gustav whacked Haiti yesterday and lost some strength. It's now a tropical storm with winds of 60 MPH. BUT forecasts show it moving in the Gulf of Mexico in the next few days where very warm water will allow it to blow-up to a major (Cat. 3) and maybe a super (Cat. 5) Hurricane.

Gasoline alley and New Orleans are are in his sights. I believe we are in for another 'Katrina' or 'near-Katrina' event this Labor Day Weekend.

For all you gas guzzler owners there out there (that's you too Minivan Mamma): best fill-up now while you can get it cheap. Bloomberg currently puts oil's price at $118 to $119.

Here is their comment as gotten from a meteorologist:

"`The entire Gulf is under the gun from Gustav,'' said Jim Rouiller, a senior energy meteorologist with Planalytics Inc., a forecaster based in Wayne, Pennsylvania, whose clients include oil companies. ``Gustav represents a real and potentially dangerous storm for the entire Gulf energy production region.''"

GUSTAV CAUSES SPIKE IN OIL AND NATURAL GAS PRICES

2008-08-26T13:04:00.002-04:00

Per Yahoo News:

Oil prices swung higher Tuesday as Hurricane Gustav developed south of Haiti, raising concerns that the storm could slam into major oil operations in the Gulf of Mexico

After falling close to $112 per barrel in overnight trading, light, sweet crude for October delivery rose $1.22 to $116.33 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange by late morning trading.

If Gustav continues along a path toward the Gulf, it could mean an uptick in gas station prices ahead of Labor Day weekend.

James Cordier, president of Tampa, Fla.-based trading firms Liberty Trading Group and OptionSellers.com, said he expects pump prices to edge up about 10 cents between now and Labor Day as refiners add a hurricane premium to wholesale prices.

"Everything about this looks like a strong storm that would evacuate platforms," Cordier said.

Per Bloomberg News:

Natural gas in New York rose amid speculation Hurricane Gustav will slash through the Gulf of Mexico next week, paring output from production platforms.

Gustav is strengthening over the Caribbean Sea and nearing Haiti, the Miami-based National Hurricane Center said in an advisory at 11 a.m. The storm is packing sustained winds of 90 miles (145 kilometers) per hour. The Gulf accounts for about 14 percent of gas output and more than a fifth of oil production, according to the U.S. Energy Department.

HERE COMES GUSTAV!

2008-08-26T08:27:00.004-04:00

HERE COMES GUSTAV! IT'S AIMED RIGHT AT 'GASOLINE ALLEY' FOLKS!

EITHER HOPE AND PRAY IT VEERS OFF OR GET READY FOR $4.50 PER GALLON OR HIGHER!

AS OIL PRICES CONTINUES TO DROP - SOME THOUGHTS

2008-08-10T22:04:00.014-04:00

GASOLINE ALLEY IN THE GULF AND TROPICAL CYCLONE AFFECTS

Well the last time I posted Tropical Storm Edouard was skirting the Gulf Coast along the southern U.S. The storm has long passed and into history doing little more than bringing beneficial rains to parts of Texas that were parched. Oil production was not affected at all.

In fact it seems like the two tropical cyclones that passed through the Gulf (the other being Hurricane Dolly) have, according the weather forecasters, stirred up and brought up cooler water from the depths of the Gulf of Mexico which could curtail any significant development of of any whopper storms for two to three weeks.

The beginning of the height of hurricane season is about a week off (08/18). Most forecasters have upped the number of total storms to 17. All are saying this isn't 2005, but also are stating that 2008 is certainly a more active year than the previous two. There's an expectation of one bad'un hitting the U.S., but it's anyone's guess if really big'un will hit gasoline alley hard enough to drive up the price of oil in the U.S.

Most American citizens are hoping and praying the nation just gets through it. They don't want to be parboiled at prices over $4.00 per gallon again.

It's a watch and see what happens.

WAR CLOUDS FORMING OVER THE RUSSIAN/GEORGIAN BORDER

The word I have is the former Soviet province, Georgia, and the Russia are about to duke it. All out war is the headlines I've seen on the net. Will it affect oil's price? Maybe. One pipeline stretching across Turkey and near Georgia was said to be burning, but oil isn't affect yet.

Another watch and see.

WHAT THE PEOPLE WANT: STRONG ENERGY MEASURES

According to an article in today's Washington Post, most Americans, as per a recent poll ,want the strong action on getting more oil - especially domestic oil. The results of that poll showed this:

1. NO CONSERVATION EFFORTS FROM WASHINGTON - instead

2. Find new sources of energy (i.e. new places to get oil): the people want

a. Off-shore drilling bans to be lifted
b. Drilling to be allowed in places like the Alaskan National Wildlife Refuge

3. Do a legal slam dunk on oil speculators whom they blame for the increase of gasoline prices over $4.00 per gallon

4. Stricter standards on fuel efficiency for autmobiles

The article did state that Americans on their own are doing the conserving: driving less, combining trips, recycling and using less electricity (70%); 4o% are doing it for both economic and environmental reasons; 33 1/3% are doing it for environmental reasons alone and 25% for economics.

Here's the link: Strong Energy Measures wanted

MY COMMENTS

The parboil at over $4.00 per gallon for many weeks certainly began to force many of you, my fellow Americans, out of the fog. SUV sales plummeted so much that the big three took some real hard hits - especially Ford which I blogged about earlier. Leasing is going to be a way of the past because thousands of SUV's are about to be dumped by the lessees.

But now were back at $3.499 to to $3.699 and prices may even go lower. I wonder if SUV sales will start to climb again just when Ford and GM decide to retool.

Americans don't want to change - they still just want to get by and gut-it-out and hope the ride on the merry-go-round can continue unabated as before.

TARTA - our local bus company - the only mass transit in the area just slammed anyone who wants to use the bus to help the environment and/or to save money on gas. They cut out the ten cent transfers and increased Call-A-Ride to a buck while at the same time offering cut rates on weekly and monthly passes for the senior citizens and the disabled.

TARTA's officials say they had to do this because of the prices of fuel. Well we all know where the fuel is going: in the gas tanks of cars, trucks and minivans. If somebody in Washington had the courage and directed less gasoline be provided to car, truck and minivan owners and more to mass transit TARTA would have had no reason (or excuse) to further harm it's own system.

I wrote here before on TARTA and but will say it again: TARTA, and in fact most American mass transit systems, were recreated from the literal ashes of the old eletric trolly systems (thanks to the shenanigans of the big three in the 30's and 40's) to encourage the car culture. These actions certainly continue to confirm it.

For my own part - if I ride TARTA now it will be strictly to help the environment because frankly it will be cheaper in terms of the amount of gasoline I use per week to get in my car to go to work (when it's not practical to use the scooter like in the dead of winter with heavy snow on the ground) than on the bus.

CONCLUSION:

I watched with approval as people scrambled in every way to try to change their gas guzzling ways. Motor scooter sales skyrocketed and in fact several used car dealerships began selling cheap scooters in addition to cars. Bicycle riders began to proliferate.

But I expect sales of scooters will drop; some people will try to sell the one they bought and the guzzling will start again.

America needs $4.0o per gallon again. Hell, we need $5.00 per gallon. It's the only way the people will change.

Too bad we can't be like the Danish. They've made themselves, through self sacrifice since the 1973 oil embargo, totally independent for their energy needs.

Denmark's Prime Minister (Anders Fogh Rasmussen) recently said: "The cure is not to reduce the price, but, on the contrary, to raise it even higher to break our addiction to oil. We are going to introduce a new tax reform in the direction of even higher taxation on energy and the revenue generated on that will be used to cut taxes on personal income — so we will improve incentives to work and improve incentives to save energy and develop renewable energy".

But we won't listen or learn - and of course - we DON'T want to sacrifice. To recall an old T.V. commercial's jingle: we want our Maypo!

As my every man whom I spoke with recently on this matter said: "It'll be up to the kids to fix this mess." His hope, and the hope of many of my generation, is that when the fan finally hits the shit he'll either be gone or too far gone to care. To leave it to the kids to fix is very selfish. Strict justice calls for him to be fully aware, absolutely engaged and totally affected when it happens. Then, and only after he's been parboiled, baked, trussed up like a Thanksgiving turkey and served, should he permitted the privilege of slipping into a nice dementia before leaving the scene for good. (And don't think I don't know I won't be part of that too - 'cause I will : the price I know I must pay for depriving the currently living younger generations, and those yet to be born, of their rightful heritage).

So, the cluster fucking and the flustered clucking have temporarily ceased. We've gotten a reprieve - too bad we aren't using it to prepare ourselves for the Big Bang sure to come.

LOCAL MAN CALLS FOR GAS TAX ON GAS GUZZLERS; TROPICAL STORM FORMS IN THE GULF

2008-08-03T22:02:00.016-04:00

Today's Toledo Blade has an interesting letter to the editor. It's so good I decided to put it here in it's entirety:

___________

"Tax gas guzzlers and lower speed limits

Over the past several years there has been a constant increase in the number of huge sport-utility vehicles on the roads. These gas hogs have driven the price of fuel up, as have other factors such as the emergence of a middle class in what used to be the Third World countries we shipped our jobs to.

I can't feel a whole lot of sympathy for the guy down the street who can't afford to fill the new Hummer he just purchased with expensive fuel. Not only is he part of the price problem, he is clearly part of the global-warming problem. Remove all the hazardous materials from the beast, dig a big hole, and bury it.

I hope the next government increases the tax for large gas guzzlers and lowers it for small, fuel-efficient cars. Also, a modest reduction in the speed limit should be imposed, even if many drivers ignore it, as they will. Maybe a few speeding tickets will help. There is no excuse for 70 and 75 mile per hour speed limits anywhere.

The question of alternate energy sources should be a priority, but anything we do in that area will take time and the two things I mentioned would have an immediate effect.
Thomas Young St. James Woods"

_________

Mr. Young and I are exactly on the same the page - at least with the gas guzzlers. I have felt for years that the gas guzzling SUV's, Hummers, Minivans, etc . . . should be taxed heavily while the folks that use fuel misers (like the small cars and hybrids) and fuels sippers (like scooters and motorcycles with engine sizes below 500 cc) should get tax breaks.

I go for the lower speed limits too! We did 55 years ago; no reason why we shouldn't now.

I do note though, that Mr. Young lives in St. James Woods. St. James Woods is a neighborhood in Springfield Township just west of Toledo. It is a part of the typical urban sprawl: a large subdivision filled with cul-de-sacs- the exact kind of neighborhood built be dependent on the automobile.

Question Mr. Young: how far is your commute to work each day? You are obviously well entrenched in the middle class. Most folks who live where you do have to commute at least 10 miles each way. Or are you doing like lots of "good" MC'ers are doing: biking it?

Ya see ya only got it half right: not only do the gas hogs have to go, but also the culture they created - including the cul-de-sac neighborhoods like St. James Woods. Perhaps you might do well to read Cluster Fuck Nation by James Kunstler and you might get the point.

So, Mr. Young if you really want to effect change, you and your wife, Nancy L., need to sell your house worth $206,000.00 which you bought back in 1999 (according the Lucas County Auditor's website) and move into Toledo. That would really be far reaching and radical on your part and would help reduce global warming as you wouldn't have to use a car at all to get many places. And if you're biking it - why TARTA will let your bike ride for free, though you'll still have to pay a buck one way (and if the head honchos at TARTA execute their plan - a buck every time to transfer too - but as a dedicated member of the MC with a six figure income I'm sure that'd be no problem).

----------

On another note, Tropical Storm Edouard has formed in the northern end of the Gulf of Mexico just south of New Orleans. Projected tracks take it right throught the heart of gasoline alley and into Texas. Forecasters say it might strengthen into a Category 1 Hurricane (i.e winds at least 75 mph). But the oil rigs have not been evacuated - and probably won't: those that manage the derricks say it's too late for that. They plan to ride it out.

Whether the price of oil is go up remains to be seen. A tropical storm doesn't shake up the market's nervous Nellies as much as a hurricane would. If the Edouard does any damage to the the alley and causes a shut down oil's price will be certain to go up. If Ed just bounces through - then nothing will change. Have to keep on an eye it though.

OIL PRICES CONTINUES TO DROP - IS THIS 'DEMAND DESTRUCTION'?

2008-07-30T09:33:00.011-04:00

Bloomberg says that the price of oil is hovering at or just below $122.00 per barrel today. This is a record $15.00 drop in price since the high of about $145.00. Sounds good doesn't? I mean here in Toledo we're paying around $3.599 per gallon. Many folks are really breathing easy after feeling parboiled when the prices hit $4.199. But is this really good?

Bloomberg had an article by Grant Smith in which the term demand destruction was used in reference to the price of oil. Demand destruction is a buzz word used by peak oil advocates/doomsayers to illustrate that Armageddon is right around the corner - that the world is right on the verge of the abyss and about to tumble in.

Here's the article if you want to read it:

Crude Oil Falls From 12 Week-Low on U.S. Fuel Demand Concern

And here from the Energy Bulletin website is good explanation of demand destruction which I placed at the end of the very first entry in this blog in May of last year (2007):

Demand Destruction: who gets destroyed?

And that is the question - who does get destroyed? Just the demand (for gasoline) or is this a sign that everything is sure to fall apart soon and it's time to 'head from them thar hills loaded for bear'? In others words: is it the demand for oil that gets destroyed or do people - in particular the poor - because the drop in demand is sudden, so swift that it causes havoc?

I don't have an answer for that. Today it's 77 degrees and humid and likely to stay very hot and humid for the next eight weeks. There's no threats in the tropics at this time - it appears to have quieted down. So, the weather is no concern for anyone. And further those out there living from day-to-day, and paycheck-to-paycheck don't really want to think about that tomorrow as this today has enough problems.

The answer, thus, is likely to come at the meteorological autumnal transition which will occur some time in late October or early November when it will still be humid but also cold, rainy and miserable - when there's demand for heat in the northern states. Then that tomorrow will becomes this today - and right around the time for the presidential election.

Demand destruction will be of great interest to all I am sure at that time.

THE BLADE'S EVE POLLICK SLAMS ANWR PUMPING PLANS

2008-07-28T07:56:00.004-04:00

Steve Pollik, the Blade's nature boy, had a wonderful article on reason why not to drill and pump oil from the Alaskan National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR). It was in the Toledo Blade this past Sunday, July 27, 2008.

Here's the link:

Perish the Thought of Drilling

I'm not going to put the article here, though, as I believe reading it in the Blade is the best policy here.

COMMENTS:

One comment that I liked was the reference to the excuse for doing the drilling: the need to increase the supply of oil for the U.S. Yet, he pointed out that the population of this nation constitues 3% of the world's population; yet, Americans use 25% of the available oil. A definite disparity that needs to be rectified not perpetuated. Glad to see Steve and I are on the same page here.

However, I do kind of wish Steve had done some name dropping. Several times he quoted words here and there from things recently said by the recent members of Congress who flew up to the ANWR, ostensibly, to take a look-see and to get 'permission' from the native folks up there to do commence raping that land.

We all know the name of one of them - and I'll drop his name right here: Lubricious Latta. I don't know if Steve just wanted to leave it to his editors to criticize the Congressman by name or whether just he wanted to keep politics out it. But I don't think that's possible. Even the bare one-word references he made have L.L.'s name on them. Would that Steve would have just said so.

FORD POSTS $8.7 BILLION LOSS!!!

2008-07-24T15:38:00.010-04:00

FORD-150: Found On Road Dead

News items from Bloomberg today:

Ford Motor Co, the world's third-biggest automaker, posted a record quarterly loss of $8.7 billion and accelerated a conversion to fuel-efficient vehicles to wean itself from money-losing trucks . . .[t]he automaker said it will double production of hybrid vehicles, sell more European autos such as the Fiesta in the U.S. and convert three North American truck factories to make a redesigned Focus and other small cars . . . [t]hey believe this is a permanent shift in buyer sentiment that they have to adjust to no matter how hard it will be . . .

COMMENT:

Can't say I didn't see this coming . . . years and years and years ago!

VESPA CRASH: ON THE ROAD AGAIN

2008-07-23T22:11:00.011-04:00

Well, my little tracker tells me that the most interest generated here has been from the Vesapa Crash.

So, just a short update post here: the LX150 is back on the road! Vespa Toledo got the part in last week and Mike Kookoothe installed it. Turns out the whole left brake handle had to be replaced: the threaded hole for the mirror is integral to it. Mike put in on last Saturday July 19th. It was a two hour job, but the scooter's street legal again. I've a-ridin' it ever since. (And a 'hat-tip' to Mike - ya done surprised me by getting the part in two weeks! And ya definitely beat out Honda East where it matters - if I'd been with them I still probably be twiddling my fingers waiting for the part to come in. Now if I could just get that promised bottle of black touch-up paint I asked ya for about 8 weeks ago. But I guess I can't have everything).

I put gas in my car (the Tuesday after the fix) and I found I hadn't pumped any in it for about a month - 32 days to be exact. I have yet to pump gas in the car at a rate much past $3.80 (paid $3.73 this time). Ridin' the bus and the scooter will do that.

Indeed when I made my bi-weekly visit to the Red Cross to get pumped by them, I was offered a chance on a $50 gas card. I tol'em I didn't need it and felt I'd be better to leave it for them folks who got the addiction.

I also must say I've been seen more scooters on the road lately. Heck, even a new scooter dealership opened on Holland-Sylvania Road - 1/2 mile from Vespa Toledo. I'm told it offers Chinese specials - probably Tanks or something like that. All fine and well for them that are fix-er-uppers - cause them Chinese bikes usually break down a lot. A 150 cc might cost ya $1,500.00 - but ya get what ya pay fer.

OIL PRICES BELOW $125.00 PER BARREL - A GOOD OR A REPRIEVE?

2008-07-23T21:11:00.013-04:00

I haven't posted in several days (4 to be exact). Just sat by - some what enthralled as I watched the march of the price of oil south. I'd never seen such a precipitous drop after such an exponential climb!

Bloomberg's last postings showed $124.23. It seems it's likely to go down even further.

And of course the price of gasoline is now heading below $3.50 per gallon.

The sigh of relief (more like a huge exhale - coming from millions of you who were holding your breath and gritting your teeth while bracing for the worst than can be imagined) .

I imagine for quite some time many, many you out there were wondering if this was all ever going to end. And now I'm sure you believe it will end.

But is this drop good for us? I don't think so. It is still teaching most of you out there that if you just gut-it-out things will eventually improve.

However, the only thing that has improved is the amount you are paying to pump it in your tanks. It hasn't solved the problem of the ever dwindling supply; it hasn't solved the problem of emissions being pumped out your ass end into the air; it hasn't solved the banking problems and the mortgage crisis. Global warming is still very much with us.

And those problems CAN'T be solved by "gutting-it-out".

Lubricious Latta has about finished his trip to the ANWR area - had his talk with Inuit there. They want the drilling for oil to start ASAP - as long as it doesn't hurt the animals (a major food source for them). After all that local economy looks like it's been in the tank for quite a while. One local said bread was going for $9.00 per loaf (talk about food crisis - right there it is)!

So, I am not surprised at that attitude. Heck - I imagine if somebody found a way to kick-restart buying gas guzzling Jeeps, the 5,000 who work on Stickney Road in Toledo's north end would want that to happen ASAP too. But as that wouldn't be good for the country in the long run, so too opening the ANWR to drilling would not be good for that land or the world in the long run. But for folks who've been living in that economic hell - any kind of relief is welcome - just like a thirsty man might welcome a cup full of saltwater - it'll slack his thirst right then and there. But oh, boy, what'll be happening to him in the long run!

But of course -most don't want think about the long run. Most just hope to get 'retired' by the time the fan hits the shit and want to leave it to their kids to fix the mess the soon-to-be retirees helped to make.

Johhnny Mac has gotten into the 'drill, drill, drill' mantra. Baree O. opposes it, but ain't got the guts to tell it like it is: the car culture has to end. But of course that won't put 'im in the big W.H. (which might become the W.C. if things really go south after the 'lection). Baree I think wants the car culture to keeping going, besides - like any rich dude he likes his luxury cars too. (Course it don't matter to me which one get the 'honor' of bein' 'lected - I ain't castin' my vote for either anyhow).

So, I'll just keep a-watchin' this fast drop in oil prices and see how far it goes until it bottoms out.

I do think most of you out there are coming to realize just how volatile it all is. But dreams of 'SUV Heaven' still dance in your head.

You've lucked out with Hurricane season so far: Dolly missed gasoline alley - but she did give a small part of it a glancing blow just to remind you all what will happen again some time. Bertha winged it out to sea and Cristobal went parallel to the eastern seaboard. So far the tracks of the storms look a lot like 2006 and 2007. But don't be fooled - 2008 is a heck of lot more active, so far, than it's two predecessors.

This is not going to be a repeat of 2005, but there still could be some big monster of a storm in our future - just a-waiting to emerge from it's hole in Africa or the south Caribbean with an eye on the Gulf in the next few weeks - once the season really gets cranking. If it does - this huge price drop could turn on itself and begin a new surge.

Which means that all of this may be nothing better than a reprieve. Kind of like how it is when the tide runs out real fast to reveal the sea's bottom. Ya might be awed by it, but it's also an indication of a huge tidal wave headed right for ya as ya stand on the beach gawking at the floppin' fishies.

Well at least one good thing has come out of the price drop - them that would have died under the usual circumstances got their lives spared due to less cars on the road. Of course them that would have died will never know that - it'd be impossible to determine exactly who would have bought the farm with oil flowing free and, relatively, cheap.

A SIGN OF THE TIMES: TOLEDO CUTTING UTILITY SUPPORT TO NGO'S IN CITY BUILDINGS

2008-07-19T07:38:00.013-04:00

Might get in to trouble for this as it's not really news yet (that I know of), but being that my tracker shows hardly anyone reading this blog - ehh - I'll take the risk.

I have it from a reliable source that the City of Toledo just informed all nonprofit users (i.e. NGO's) that they will longer be getting support from the city to pay their electric bills in the buildings they rent from the city (usually for $1 a year) to use.

Many of those NGO's provide services to the homeless and marginalized in Toledo.

I personally know that one of those NGO's is going to have to find a way now to come with $25K per year just keep the lights. And that at a time when it's getting harder and harder to get grants and also when the U.S. Government keeps trying to find creative ways to cut as many as it can from H.U.D funding. (Note: this now being done by demanding more and more picayune data on the poor from NGO staffers who are already too few, too overworked and over stretched forcing them to choose: take care of the people or do the paperwork).

Yes, "There's trouble in River City." but it ain't got nuthin' to do with playin' pool.

The cause: the cost of energy production which is directly related to what's happening with the price of oil and the fallout from the bottom dropping out of the housing market.

But local head honcho, Carelton S. Finbeiner, will probably not admit it and will come up with some excuse as to why the city is subtly beginning to dump out of helping the homeless who will be most affected since many of the shelters which rent from Toledo depend on that utility support to keep their doors open.

It looks like staffing cuts and reductions in beds and services to those folks is probably on the board in the near future.

And take that into account with the 'restructuring' (aka staff cuts) of the Police Department only announced by Chief Navarre yesterday.

These are both signs of the time folks. Ever so slowly things are coming unglued.

To put it metaphorically: the body is very sick and is beginning to pull the blood supply away from the extremities so it can focus on the vital organs that keep it alive.

OIL PRICES HAVE HISTORIC DROP

2008-07-18T19:29:00.018-04:00

The price of oil recorded its largest price drop ever. Since early this week the price has dropped about seventeen dollars closing today at $128.88 (per Bloomberg)

Yes, Tom Kloz an oil industry analyst, said "We're going to see some relief from that relentless march higher."

But don't anyone take solace yet. The price of oil is extremely volatile. A little geopolitical unrest anywhere in the Middle East or Africa or South America and - BOOM - up it goes again.

Also Hurricane season is just getting cranked up. The high part of it is yet to come. All that needs to happen is for one or two powerful ones to hit the Gulf Coast and likewise - BOOM - up it goes again.

One other factor that still isn't getting much attention (and it really should) is the fact the U.S. continues to use more oil than it produces AND imports. Despite the fact that people are driving less, there's still has been no substantial drop in consumption since the high prices hit only - about 2-4%. That's a piddle in bucket compared to what's still being used by most Americans (about 21,000,000 barrels per day).

Demand cannot continue to outstrip supply without causing high prices to visit Americans yet again.

Further, there's less and less each day to be taken out of the ground. The supply problem isn't going to go away. It's here to stay. If American insist on returning to the oil well again and again to fill up - they'll come to it one day (soon) to find it empty.

So, I guess for Ma and Pa SUV and Hummer owner - it's break time for now. You might be enjoying gasoline probably at around at $2.859 per gallon soon - maybe even a little lower. But don't re-crank up those vacation plans to take the family back on the road yet. If you commit yourself to head out for the Grand Tetons or Myrtle Beach in August you might find yourself paying a price you didn't expect to pay to get there and back.

Americans have changed their driving ways in the last two or three months - that's true. It's got the two of the big three moving toward dumping production of the SUV's and big ass trucks. Honda and Toyota can't keep the fuel sippers on the floor.

But the orientation is still deeply, deeply, deeply, deeply geared to preserving the car culture. What that means, in my opinion, is that the drop in fuel consumption is motivated by really nothing more than a "gut-it-out-and-pray-to-God-prices-go-down" attitude. Until THAT attitude changes nothing, in the end, is ever going to get better - indeed it will continue to worsen until it becomes impossible for most Americans to live their lives any other way but crawling, biting and scratching out their existences each day. And this won't take 30 or 40 years to happen either. More like 5 or 10.

It means - if the American people don't want to tumble down the hill and become a third world nation in a decade (or less) - life changes must be made now.

So, don't let oil's price slide put you on your own slippery slope into oblivion.

TARTA TO CUT SERVICES; DISCOURAGES RIDERSHIP WITH TRANSPORATION CRISIS COMING

2008-07-18T09:22:00.006-04:00

The Toledo Area Regional Transit Authority(TARTA) is doing it again: cutting service at time when it should be encouraging ridership.

According to today's Toledo Blade the changes to occur are:

- Eliminating the ten cent transfer fee and making a one dollar no matter where one goes.
- Cutting out express service to Sylvania
- Cut the crosstown service during all times but rush hour
- Cutting service on River Road (34R)
- Change the fare on Call-A-Ride from sixty cents to one dollar (no automatic transfer to the second bus I assume)

There's some 'goodies' here too, but I am not going to go into those - they are piddley - merely a bone being thrown to those who ride the bus regularly. And why is this happening? Because head honchos are beefing about fuel costs. They're too high.

There's a way to solve this, but of course TARTA, dependent on voter levies, doesn't want to mull THIS: getting beyond encouraging ridership to supporting the one thing that will increase it: do whatever is necessary to get people to commute to work in anything else but the automobile.

The fuel TARTA needs is going mainly into Joe and Jane Middle Class's SUV's, minivans, and big ass trucks. I still see a whole lot of them coming in from the south Toledo and the 'Burbs Monday through Friday in their huge fuel hogs - often with only one person driving. Most of those folks work in offices in downtown Toledo and truly do not need to go anywhere else during the day. Lunch time out at places like Cafe Marie's or Barry's Bagels in Westgate when one works, for example, in One Government Center, is not only just a luxury, but a travesty that is unpatriotic to boot.

I am certain the same thing is happening all over Toledo too.

Yeah, oil is down to around $129.00 per barrel to today. The Joes and Janes out there are giving a huge collective sigh of relief as they believe they've gutted it out and gasoline at more reasonable price is on the way.

WRONG! It will go up again. It's time to change. Get out of the 'Mr. Nice Guy' mode and cease pleading with folks to try the bus. Using mass transit is in our national interest and we don't have the time any more to play nice.

So, TARTA honchos: when are you going to get the message and stop discouraging bus ridership and start pressing for the changes to get folks on 'em?

And while you are at it, when are you going to start working in earnest on losing your own fuel hogs too? GM, Ford and Chrysler got us into these petroleum based internal combustion engine driven monstrosities that barely pass for public mass transit way back in the 30's and 40's. It's quite past the time to rebuild the electrically driven streetcar system and get it back on the road again.

By cutting service or making service more expensive to use, all you guys are doing is helping to push this country closer the edge of the abyss.

So, how long are going to wait to do the courageous thing that needs doing? Until we're on the very brink and about to fall in?

If you aren't up to it or if you are can't or won't stop conspiring to preserve the car culture maybe it's time for changes in TARTA's leadership.

EYES WATCHING

2008-07-17T09:34:00.004-04:00

Gosh! One tongue-in-cheek remark and BAM, I get turned over to the Justice Department!

Man, Bob - are you that paranoid!?

Whatever happened to freedom of speech?

Guess it's just a sign of the times.

I wonder if I'm on the 'list' now of possible subversives (aka malcontents, rebels, 'dangerous people') who must be watched carefully.

Can I expect a visit from the FBI?

I think not. Get your head back in the right place, Bob! No harm was ever intended.

THE BLACK HOLE IS IN VIEW!

2008-07-16T08:49:00.007-04:00

THIS WAS POSTED YESTERDAY AT PEAK OIL: LIFE AFTER THE CRASH:

"There's a particular moment known to all Baby Boomers when, in a rapture of over-reaching, Wile E. Coyote has run past the edge of the mesa and, still licking his chops and rubbing his front paws in anticipation of fricasseed roadrunner, discovers that he is suspended in thin air by nothing more than momentum. Grin becomes chagrin. He turns a nauseating shade of green, and drops, whistling, back to earth thousands of feet below, with a distant, dismal, barely audible thud at the end of his journey. We are Wile E. Coyote Nation.

Is there anyone in the known universe who thinks that the US financial system is not fifty feet beyond the edge of the mesa of credibility?

Nothing will avail now. Not even if Sirhan Sirhan were paroled at noon today and transported directly to the West Wing with a .44 magnum in each hand (and a taxi driven by the Devil waiting outside to take him to the US Treasury and the offices of the Federal Reserve).

It's hard to imagine what kind of melodramas were unspooling on the Hamptons lawns this weekend, while everybody else in America was watching Nascar, or plying the aisles of BJs Discount Warehouse for next week's supply of mesquite-and-guacamole flavored Doritos, or having flames and chains tattooed on their necks, or lost in a haze of valium and methadrine.

With the death of the IndyMac Bank last week, and the GSEs Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac laying side-by-side in the EMT van on IV drips, headed for the Federal Reserve's ever more crowded intensive care unit, there was a sense of the American Dream having passed through the event horizon that denotes the opening of a black hole.

What would happen if the US Government acted to bail out these feckless enterprises (and what if they don't)? Either way, it's not a pretty picture. If Mr. Bernanke does start shoveling loans into the GSE black hole, he'll further undermine the soundness of his own outfit and do nothing, really, to repair Fannie and Freddie's structural problem of having securitized too many loans that will never be paid back. If instead Fannie and Freddie are flat-out taken over entirely by the US government (and remember the Federal Reserve is not the government), then the national debt will roughly double overnight -- which will pound the US dollar down a rat-hole.

Meanwhile, the foreign holders of those decrepitating dollars might not rush to the redemption window, but they certainly would use them to buy up every oil futures contract on God's not-so-green Earth as fast as possible -- they'd be dumb not to -- which would leave American Happy Motorists with gasoline prices north of $5 a gallon, and possibly north of $10. (In that case, say goodbye to the airlines. In fact, say goodbye to what passes for the rest of the US economy, including especially the vaunted retail sector that supposedly counts for 70 percent of the action.)

If Fannie and Freddie are left to die out on the desert floor, say goodbye to the housing market, the major investment banks, countless regional banks, the retirement accounts of virtually everyone in America, the viability of all fifty states' governments, and the day-to-day operating ability of all their municipalities -- and very likely the current incarnation of the world banking system.

This process is really out of control now. The bottom line is the comprehensive bankruptcy of the United States. The Republican Party under George Bush will be known as the party that wrecked America (release the universe actually works, which is to say an operating procedure run on earnest effort and truthfulness 2.0). Painful as it is, Americans had better get a new "Dream" and fast. It better be a dream based on the ways rather than merely trying to get something for nothing and wishing on stars. We might begin symbolically by evacuating Las Vegas and calling in an air strike on the loathsome place -- to register our new reality-based attitude adjustment.

After that, we've got to get to work re-tooling all the everyday activities of life, including the way we grow our food, the way we raise and deploy capital, the way we do trade and manufacturing, the way we go from point A to point B, the way we educate children, the way we stay healthy, and the way we occupy the landscape. I know, it sounds like a lot, maybe too much. But grok this: we don't have any choice if we want a plausible future on this portion of the North American continent.

Of course, none of that is likely to happen. Instead, and under the worst imaginable economic conditions, we'll probably embark on a campaign to prop up the un-prop-up-able and sustain the unsustainable -- that is, defend every status quo habit and behavior that we're used to, whether it can be salvaged or not. Of course, this would be a fatal squandering of our dwindling resources, but it it tends, historically, to be the last act of the melodrama in any faltering empire.

The result, pretty soon into that process, will be social breakdown and political upheaval. Every tattoo freak out there who has been prepping for his own starring role in some kind of comic book armageddon will finally get his chance to shine. Lots of people will get hurt and starve. Property will change hands in a disorderly way. And at the end of this process an American corn-pone Hitler may be waiting to set everything and everyone straight.

The markets open in about an hour. Good luck everybody."

COMMENT:

This was from Mr. Jim Kunstler's post on July 14th at LATC. Essentially says it's about time to 'Run for them thar hills!' loaded for bear. It's got me seriously thinking about pulling most of my money out of a local banking institution (including an IRA) before the hit comes here.

Mr. Kunstler and the fella who runs LATC are putting out some very truthful information - they're trying very hard to warn us.

But I wonder how long it will be before 'W' and politicians like Bob Latta will try and pull the plug on all this. Bush has already prepared for the inevitable - probably even adding additional reinforcements to his ranch even as I write this. And Latta - I kind of wonder, if one busted the laws and if one broke into servers at the banks and other institutions that keep the monies for the well-off, whether one might see Latta and his cronies ever so slowly pulling their portable wealth out of them and putting it some place safe - like in personal vaults or overseas somewhere (a Swiss Bank for instance).

If that's so I wonder if all the posturing he's doing in this area and other the actions (the soon to be trip to Alaska to convince the folks there to allow drilling in the ANWR comes to mind) are really geared to keep the top down on the pressure cooker long enough for him to get what he needs to get done so he can bug out before it all blows.

Kunstler and LATC would have to be stopped to keep these politicians, with their insider information, from losing their edge. I know Latta and others have got to know this (but ya couldn't get'em to tell no matter what ya did to 'em). But I hope they don't succeed.

The people need to know what's about to happen and these two guys may help to save millions by telling it like it is. So, keep going Jim Kunstler and LATC - but know that you're probably being watched reeeeeal close - and prepare yourselves for a shut down at some point 'cause yer tellin' more than the powers that be can tolerate fer long.

OIL TAKES ANOTHER DIPPSEY-DOODLE, BUT NOT GOOD FOR YANKEE DOODLE

2008-07-15T12:36:00.003-04:00

Oil's taken a Dipsey-Doodle; Not Good for Yankee Doodle

Yahoo News shows oil took a drop of over $6.00 today. But that ain't good news, folks. The drop happened, according to market analysts, because of fears the U.S. economy might have the bottom fall out it (they call it 'concerns' so as not to alarm the man or woman on the street). And just like the last drop (about the same distance) - it's not likely to last long.

TOLEDO BLADE'S DAILY MAIL BAG

The Blade had some interesting letters to the editor today.

Here they are in full:

1. Government fails to lead on energy

A glaring travesty regarding the fuel crisis is the lack of coordinated effort to conserve. Drive-through windows waste hundreds of thousands of gallons of gasoline, adding to pollution and global warming. They could be reserved for the elderly and impaired.

Buildings maintained for centuries in other nations are needlessly razed here, wasting vast amounts of energy. The speed limit could be dropped to 55 miles per hour and pride promoted in smaller vehicles over gas-guzzlers. More money should be invested in solar and wind-energy research rather than war.

Refrigerators, one of our most energy-consuming appliances, use energy to make air cold even when it's cold outside and expel hot air into our air-conditioned homes in the summer. They could be redesigned to draw in cold air and exhaust hot via a 4-inch hose through a drier-like vent in an exterior wall.

Implementing and coordinating these and similar measures is the job of government but our neoconservative administration is preoccupied with forcing its ideologies on others and waging a "war against terrorism" abroad, supposedly to "keep terrorists from attacking here at home."

The Bush Administration has impacted our nation with far greater blows than even the most ambitious terrorist could ever hope to. Record national debt, bankruptcies, layoffs, and plant closings continue, and hundreds of thousands of Americans have lost their jobs, homes, and hope. Record government spending while jobs and taxable incomes dwindle is shrinking our dollar and further increasing the soaring cost of food and fuel. The administration's needless contrived war continues costing the lives of thousands, impairing thousands more, increasing our enemies and costing billions.

Meanwhile, big oil continues freely siphoning our wallets, while the administration pushes controversial drilling to drain our children's future rather than conservation to secure it.
David A. Warner Temperance

2. Make lawmakers more accountable

Please, representatives in Washington, stop playing politics with our lives. We need energy independence now. While thousands of your constituents are being laid off because of rising fuel prices, we get nothing out of Washington but rhetoric.

When we write you to voice our concerns, please don't patronize us with standard form responses that tell us what the United States can't do or should do - we've heard that before. We need to know what you will do. Please, no more studies or photo opportunities in congressional committees. Just get off your backsides and act on behalf of your constituents: the people who voted you into your jobs, not special-interest groups.

This mess did not just happen. Remember the late 1970s and our leaders telling us to turn down the thermostats and put on a sweater? We remember the long lines at the gas stations. What has happened as a result of our energy dependence of that period and the 20-plus year since? Not a thing.

Our situation will not change until the voters send people to Washington who are afraid to lose their jobs. While our country is imploding and Congress' approval rating is below 15 percent, they are concerned with talk radio.

It is time to make them all accountable to the people.

Bob Carlucci Maumee

3. Latta should explain energy-funding vote

The voting record for HR 6049, the Renewable Energy and Job Creation Act of 2008, shows that U.S. Rep. Bob Latta (R., Bowling Green) voted no, as did 159 other Republicans. The bill passed by simple majority in the House but got effectively killed by Senate Republicans anyway. It is my understanding that this bill was simply an extension for providing for $18 billion in subsidies for wind-generation tax credits and solar-generation installations. These subsidies were paid for by simply shifting some of the billions in tax credits President Bush provided to the oil companies. This was not new spending nor would it have an impact on the budget deficit that has been enlarged by the Bush Administration.

The oil companies have made $600 billion in net profit since President Bush took office. Do they really need another $18 billion in tax incentives? That's money that could be earmarked for solving the "oil addiction" America has, a term that Mr. Bush himself used. In Perrysburg we have First Solar, and in Bowling Green are wind-turbine installations providing renewable power. It seems to me that Mr. Latta is more concerned with party loyalty and politics than he is in serving not only his own constituency but the people of the country as a whole.

I would like to hear an explanation from Mr. Latta on why he was part of the Republican effort to kill alternative energy funding when oil now costs more than $140 a barrel. He needs to explain that to the people working at First Solar as well.

Todd Smyth Maumee

4. Wake up or we'll be living in Stone Age

As I sit here and watch the energy prices go through the roof, the car sales plummet, union members get laid off en masse, and China and India planning to slant drill under the United States for oil off the coast of Florida, I wonder when the voters are going to wake up and throw out of office the politicians who have betrayed our country by pandering to the radical environmental groups.

Those groups' only goal is to destroy capitalism by not enabling us to develop our own energy resources under the feel-good guise of saving our country for the future. And for some inexplicable reason, a great number of our politicians seem to support those goals. We read it every day in our papers: We can't exploit our natural resources because it will take five to 10 years to develop them, and we don't want to spoil the view or irritate a few caribou. Those same politicians were playing the same tune 10 years ago.

During the last election cycle, we were promised a solution by one party. It was elected and its solution was $4 to $5 gas but it seems the voters are on their way to put these same liars back in office. Members of the other party, with no energy policy, seem to have stuck their heads in the sand and do nothing while we are going broke.

Some of the former make hundreds of millions off the questionable global-warming theories, and their buddies in office now are hoping to get on the gravy train by supporting them until they are out of office.

Americans better wake up before a lot of us are living in the Stone Age.
Joe Fern Maumee

5. End wasteful sprawl of shopping centers

On my drive to work recently, as I listened to the newscaster sharing Toledo's plans for redeveloping the shuttered Southwyck Shopping Center and as a gas-guzzling SUV flew past me with an "I Love Wal-Mart" bumper sticker, I couldn't help but reflect on the best way to celebrate this Independence Day - by patronizing locally-owned, independent businesses right here in our urban neighborhoods rather than big-box national chain stores in the suburbs.

These huge, ground-floor malls surrounded by miles of pavement are an inefficient and unnecessary use of land, considering the millions of square feet of vacant retail space across our nation. Yet last year, developers built 140 million more square feet of shopping centers and big-box stores, and our cities and states encouraged this unwarranted sprawl with infrastructure improvements, tax breaks, and other subsidies.

Citizens who care about the sustainability of this country should be demanding land use and economic policies that put an end to irresponsible and never-ending construction of sprawling shopping centers. We need to stop subsidizing corporate expansion and start nurturing our neighborhood businesses.

Linda Detrick-Jaegly Economic development & marketing manager
Lagrange Development Corp./United North

MY COMMENTS:

I really liked the comments in letters number 1 and 2; it shows me I'm not all alone in this fight.

Letter number 3 - that follows on my comments on Lubricious Latta (aka Slippery Bob): he and others like him need their feet held to the fire until they see the light (hopefully not from their toes).

Letter number 4 - I certainly agreed with the writer's last statement: "Americans better wake up before a lot of us are living in the Stone Age." Of course Mr. Fern and I would disagree, vehemently beyond that. He believes we can stop it by more drillin' and fergit about the birdies and the bees - hell fergit the whole planet - whatever it takes to save our collective fanny. I, on the other hand, believe the juggernaut's comin'; that's there's no practical way to stop it and that it's gonna ream us good. All each and every one us can do is get ready to take the hit. -And that's what the new Prez (who ever that'll be) should do once he's sittin' in the chair: read us the riot act and do what's got to be done no matter how much it hurts.

And last but not least - letter number 5: great comments on urban sprawl and the mall. I kind of doubt the purity of the writer's sincerity, though. Ms. Detrick-Jaegly is part of the Lagrange Development Corporation. Certainly sprawl needs to stop (and it will, but not the way people would like it to: a nice long, slow roll). But the lady herself and her Corp. stand to benefit from all this (that's a nice way of saying "make lots of money off of the misery of others" - them folks who'll be trudging back into town: the refugees from the suburbs and exburbs after the bottom falls out). They'll have the houses sitting there waitin' on 'em - ready for occupancy and the high rents they'll charge - that's fur sure.

VESPA CRASH - THE AFTERMATH & ADVENTURES IN MASS TRANSIT

2008-07-13T20:58:00.007-04:00

THE AFTERMATH - THE VESPA

Well it's been over twelve and a half days since the Vespa crash at Five Points in Toledo, Ohio - specifically at the corners of Lewis and Sylvania.

At the time I mentioned that both me and the scooter escaped unscathed. As it turned out - that was not entirely true. Yes, there was some minor scrapes and a dent on the front it, but as the days past the left-hand mirror began to get looser and looser and looser until it wouldn't hold in place.

I took the Vespa to Vespa Toledo on Saturday, July 5, 2008 where I bought it almost it year ago. The owner, Mike Kookoothe, looked it over and saw that the the mirror's metal bar was bent and its threads were stripped. So was the attaching nut. He did try to re-thread that nut, and put in an alternate mirror, but it was no-go. The nut itself was warped on one end - I suppose the crash caused it.

So, even though the Vespa runs perfectly, it was now essentially no longer street-legal. Mike told me he'd order the part and hoped to have in about three days. I decided to risk it and rode home. A motorbike cop, who was westbound on Sylvania Avenue in Sylvania saw me eastbound on the other side of the room. He gave me a look, but let me go on.

The Vespa is now garaged until I get notice of the part. And that might be a while. Why do I say that? Experience.

When I had damage to Yamaha Vino in July of 2006 after the accident I had on it, it took Honda East six weeks to get the parts. And with the Vespa?

Well, last year I lost the ignition key in August (left it in my armored jacket which I left on top of my car - it was hot out - forgot it was there and drove out soon thereafter (remember I still do use my car for light hauling) and it fell off on Lagrange Street - it was gone in flash). So, I had Mike K, order a blank and I also decided to order a backcase too - the Vespa's trunk. He promised a week to ten days to get them.

When the ten days passed, I kept bugging and bugging and bugging him about the items. And he kept promising and promising and promising that both would be in 'soon'. Finally after about 6 weeks I wrote a rather nasty letter to Vespa's customer service about it - and another problem I had - the infamous stalling problem caused by a drenched emissions cannister from overfilling the gas tank (that's another story I'll not get into here).

The letter did the trick (at the same time ticking off Mike) and I had both key blank and backcase within two weeks.

Anyway what I learned from both the Yamaha and the Vespa parts matters is that it's likely that one will have to wait weeks and weeks and weeks to get parts. Why? I surmise it has to do in large part with the fact the U.S.A. is about 99.999% a car country. I further surmise there's only about only a few million scooterists in whole nation. Therefore, distribution systems are not anywhere as good as it with car parts - many of which can be yanked out of some junker in a car graveyard.

Oh and I have gotten the part as promised? NOPE! Called Mike this past Friday and I never got him - had to talk to his daughter who told me he just went home to get something. She told me that he said he expects the part in next (now this) week. Well, I've heard that song before, but I am used it to now . . .

ME - MY AFTERMATH

A little over twelve hours after the crash my left arm (the one I fell on when I went down), began to develop a bruise on top of the forearm just short of where the bend of the upper arm meets it.

At first I dismissed it - it didn't hurt much and I thought it was just A bad bruise. However a day and half later the bruise was quite dark and raised up from the flesh. It hurt to make a fist. It looked to me like I might have a small simple fracture here - yes a broken arm.

I put up with all night - it never really hurt bad and I took some aspirin which helped. I did check some online medical websites they indicated that the severity of the pain was no indication of what was wrong. I decided I'd better take advantage of my personal coverage in my insurance and get it checked out.

I got up early and drove myself to St. Anne's Mercy Hospital. A couple of lady docs examined it and gave me a preliminary diagnosis of a very bad bruise, but ordered X-rays to make sure.

I let myself be placed in the hands of two women who were X-ray techs who were still in school do me. It worked out. The Pix came back negative - a real relief - it was just bad contusion. At this writing my arm is completely healed - one would never know I had a minor injury there.

ADVENTURES IN MASS TRANSIT

So, I'm off the road for now until the little-bitty part comes in - unless I acquire a mirror I can clamp on. But as the handle bar is mostly concealed under plastic that seems unlikely to work-out.

Yet, I will NOT be daunted and be forced back into my gas guzzling Chevrolet Cavalier. I'm doing what I did when I damaged the Vino: riding TARTA's buses.

However, there is a difference: last time I legged it around town when I got off the bus or stayed home. But I've done something different this time.

Days after the accident I decided to try using bicycle in conjunction with the buses which have a rack on front to mount up to two bikes which 'ride' the bus for free.

There's a bike shop just down the street from one of my jobs (Wersell's).

On Monday, July 8th I walked on down there during lunch and bought an Avenir Raliegh Detour M19 - along with left side view mirror and bike helmet (I already had an orange bike vest).

I've been doing it almost five days now and I am impressed. The morning commute on Mondays, Wednesdays and Thursdays - which ends with a half-mile walk to work (my choice - the 17 bus I start out on turns into the 2 and drops me off on Monroe without need of buying a ten cent transfer. I could take the 20 and get dropped off at the door for the dime for transfer costs - but I prefer the walk for the exercise not because I'm cheap.) usually takes me 10 minutes to walk, but on the bike - it's five or so minutes. And, if I wish, I can also use it to ride to other places at now about half the time it would take by foot.

I do leave it secured by cable outside the office where I work and just to discourage would-be bike thieves, I take its seat with me into the building.

I didn't mention one other thing that makes the bike a good deal: a change in the local laws regarding use of the sidewalks by bicycles. Due the recent proliferation of many biker-riders over the last couple of years, the Toledo City Council changed the ordinance and now allows bike-riders to use the sidewalk if they wish - to help prevent automobile/bicycle collisions is the goal. Bicycles by law in Ohio last year also finally got the recognition that they are due: cars MUST share the road with them.

The latter doesn't matter to me as I ain't gonna fight with a car while on a bike, but the sidewalk issue did matter. I use them as much as I can now.

So, it's back to adventures in mass transit. TARTA, as with most U.S. mass transit systems is not very efficient: only two buses run per hour during rush hour on any one route - worse on the weekends - once per hour; lateness; not showing up at all; drivers who run from friendly to surly; a whole rainbow of passengers: regular commuters, rowdy school children, disabled men and women, the elderly - and even pimps and prostitutes. Heck I once listened to one fellow male passenger telling his buddy how he'd resort to robbery if his Social Security disability case fell through. So ya really do meet all types.

Today I added the adventure of traveling to one of the suburbs on the bus - Perrysburg to be exact. I had a meeting to go to at 577 Foundation and was determined NOT to use the car. I checked out the route online then I called TARTA to get instructions on what bus routes to take (17 to 10 t0 9 - the latter two being 'call-a-rides'). However, I had an additional obstacle to overcome: the annual Lagrange Street Polish festival had shut down 3 or 4 city blocks on the 17's route and the festival is right near my home to boot! I had to learn how to catch the bus on Elm Street which is not a regular bus route and so has no marked stops.

That wasn't too hard - just a matter of flagging it down while I held on to the bike. The only other concern was having the bike taken from me - the neighborhood is turning tough. Kids and even adults get victimized all the time and my bike wasn't cheap.

However, nothing happened and all worked out. I rode to Perrysburg and arrived at about 2:30 PM. Did some small errands at Kroger's there; rode around a bit and then went and stayed through my part of my meeting (started at 5 and I left a 6:15); got back on the bus (which I called) and successfully got back home at about 8:10 PM.

On the trip I also found some encouraging news: some of the suburbanites - the residents of ol' yuppified Perrysburg - are using the call-a-ride to the point that the bus is filled during the work week.

That was the word from one kind bus driver manning the 9. Yet he said that TARTA is still too orientated to discouraging the use of the system (hope his bosses don't read this). Drivers he said are the key. They really make the difference - friendly treatment results in more riders using it. So, he treats the locals with respect and kindness and - voila - the ridership goes up.

Amazing! Somebody who is on the same page with me of getting folks on the bus! My own observations of TARTA over almost the last three years (when I got back on after Hurricane Katrina hit gasoline alley in the Gulf causing gas to shoot to $3.23 per gallon and before it cleaned eveyone's clock in New Orleans) were exactly that. I saw that system is geared to provide transportation to the economically marginalized or those who have lost their license to drive or can't drive or refuse to learn. Hardly anyone at three years ago used the bus if they had car.

Not surprising, though. Toledo, after all, is a car town -we build Jeeps here. Chrysler doesn't want people riding mass transit. Hell, neither does GM or Ford. And not even Honda or Toyota which boast about their fuel efficient vehicles wants Americans to start using the bus en masse.

Yet this bus driver's statement gives me some hope that things are changing - a little. He called my bike-riding/bus riding combo the 'silent revolution'.

Maybe there's hope for the middle-class after all. But I'll reserve judgment - I'm still convinced that like the middle-class everyman I referred to in the previous blog, it's going to take a significant increase in the cost of fueling a car (in this case I'd say around ten dollars per gallon) before the middle-class everyman is going to change the way he lives.

In the mean time - let the 'silent revolution' continue to roll!!

WHAT THE WAR IN IRAQ IS ALL ABOUT

2008-07-13T08:04:00.021-04:00

"Ask 'em when they're running out. Ask 'em when there's no heat in their homes and they're cold. Ask 'em when their engines stop. Ask 'em when people who have never known hunger start going hungry. You wanna know something? They won't want us to ask 'em. They'll just want us to get it for'em!" (Higgins in "Three Days of the Condor")

Above is the picture of the home of man who is the epitome of middle-class America. A man who says he sick of the War in Iraq and wants it to end; a man who says he believes our current President "W" has been irresponsible; a man who says he wants the troops home - now; a man who says he regrets voting for for the same "W"; a man who says he's not buying anymore new cars.

Take a good look at his home. Count then number of cars in the driveway - don't forget the one on the turn-around out front. If you've counted correctly you should come up with five.

This is a man whose property has an automatic sprinkler system installed. This is a man who has an electronic fence installed to keep his Jack Russell terrier in the yard. This is a man who uses a gasoline powered lawnmower, a gasoline powered weed-whacker and a gasoline powered leaf-blower.

This is a man who travels all over town during the work week and to distant places on the weekends. And in his used Mercedes too!

This is a man who travels in his Mercedes sixty miles to Detroit to board a passenger jet plane just to visit his mother almost as if he were just getting on city bus to travel across town.

This is a man living in a house on corner lot in a cul-de-sac neighborhood along with others of his type. It's an exclusive neighborhood in the sense that one must have at least a six figure income even to have been able to have acquired the mortgage to get a house in it.

This is a man whose life is so built upon the automobile and oil that it takes to run it that the public transit system authorities didn't even consider it necessary to have any bus routes near his home because oil was so cheap and readily available at the time the system was planned.

This is a man whose house is located in the fringe part of his city - a part with special taxing rules that divert real property taxes to the school system of a nearby suburb - making it effectively an adjunct or a satellite of the same.

This is a man who sent all of his children to those economically exclusive suburban schools.

And now this man has one child working in the auto industry building more gas guzzlers; and two children working in their own middle-class jobs in far-flung automobile dependent places; and three others still working out their educations so they too can have that their own middle-class jobs that depend upon the automobile and oil to get them there.

All that this man has; all of his success; all of his family; everything that holds this man securely in his socio-economic class is absolutely dependent on oil.

So, tell me, then, do you really believe him when he says he's against the war in Iraq when without a shadow of a doubt that what this war is all about is to gain control of oil? Those troops there are truly fighting for this man and his whole way of life; yet, this man insists on living in the illusion that he opposes this war.

What this man says and what he does are entirely in contradiction. What this man does is cover himself with a very thin and deceptive veneer - really a web of personal self-delusion. Yet, the truth, though this man refuses to face it, is:

when there's no heat in his house and he's cold; when his engines stop; when he truly starts to go hungry - he'll be right out there with the millions just like him demanding that the powers that be in this land go out and get it (oil) for them no matter what it takes or how many soldiers must die doing it.

'W', Jumpin' Johnnie and Bouncin' Barak all know this too. The first one's got his place set and it no longer matters to him what happens. Like Louis XV of France he can flippantly say "After me, the deluge."

I wonder which of the other two will be stuck telling this man, the everyman of his whole social class, that "normal" has already changed and that trying to "get it for'im" intact is no longer possible?

LUBRICIOUS LATTA DEMANDS DRILLING IN ALASKAN ANIMALS' UNPOLLUTED PARADISE

2008-07-12T12:07:00.011-04:00

Rep. Bob Latta is at it again. Following up on George H.W. Bush's statement that "The American way of life is NOT up for negotiation . . .", Mr. Latta stated his demand that the Alaskan National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR) be opened for oil drilling:

"If we had the North Slope open right now at the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge you'd be talking about a million barrels a day. In my opinion this is a life or death issue for our country. When you had cheap oil you could say we don't need to be drilling - we [could] let other countries do it. It might take a few years getting things organized, but oil in this country is going to be massively consumed for the next 25 to 30 year".

Zounds! That's scary! The ANWR only has about 10 billion barrels of oil. The U.S. consumes 20 million per day right now. Massive consumption is what Mr. Latta hopes to keep going with his demand for the drilling - and thereby preserving the the current version of the American Dream. Trouble is that the 10 billion barrels even if available right NOW would only last us about one year.

Come on, Bob - it's reality check time. Don't hinder the changes needed to help our country survive what's coming. You and your cronies can no longer tell us we can have our cake and eat it too.

So, cut the slick sing-songing - otherwise there ain't gonna be an America at all in any form in the future. It's time to find some political courage guy and tell it like it is and begin to make preparations to take the hit that is almost on our doorstep.

STILL GETTING HIGH ON OIL!

2008-07-11T10:05:00.002-04:00

Oil hit a new record today! It spiked to over $147 per barrel. Why? Sword rattling by Iran, Israel and the U.S., problems with Nigerian insurgents and dropping supplies in the U.S.

Most Oil industry analysts believe it will go even higher next week. But they are right a little less than half the time.

I guess getting high on oil is just the way the people want to be.

Our collective capacity to suffer from all this pain is something people have been doing for ages. We just WON'T let go of a way of life that is taking us down a little faster each day.

So, even saying that will change nothing. Like alternet.com pointed out with regard to SUV owners - they'll hold until their leases expire and try to slip into something a little less comfortable. But the reality is that in the end ALL the cars have to come off the roads if we want to have even the slightest chance of getting through this alive.

I do wonder if I should consider dumping the scooter and consider getting a horse, a washtub/scrubboard and big barrel of salt for meat preservation and ball jars for canning. This also means buying some chickens and to start learning how to raise'em and planting a garden.

I do certainly want to be ready when the fan hits the shit which I expect will be soon (that's not a literary faux pas by the way - it's intentional).

2008-07-09T11:14:00.006-04:00

Last night it hit the local TV media and now it's in the Blade: Delta Airlines is ending a 65 year relationship with Toledo. No more Delta flights from here.

WHY! The cost of OIL , OIL, OIL!!

I'm tellin' ya folks - it's a sign of the times. It ain't speculators causing this. It's the way things are. It's the new 'normal'.

Neither Johnny McCain or Barak O. will be able to change anything. I believe whomever ends up in the White House in November is going end up being blamed for what's about to happen. Right now I wouldn't take that job unless a guard consisting of at least one division of heavily armed crack troops from the U.S. Marines was part of the deal.

When will you all finally admit it and begin to do what ought to have been done long ago: CHANGE THE WAY YOU LIVE!!!

Cost of oil at Bloomberg at this hour: $137.65.

Gasoline prices in Toledo, from my street view, are holding at just below $4.00 per gallon.

OIL PRICES DOWN $8 - BUT NOT FOR LONG

2008-07-08T11:10:00.003-04:00

News flash from Yahoo: oil is down a whole eight bucks! Yeah - it's only $136.37 at this hour.

BUT - analysts say it's only a short adjustment - a "buy-time" for now; however, folks should prepare for prices to ramp up again.

So, noooooo - the so-called oil-bubble has NOT burst. When the buy frenzy is over - up she goes again.

THE YEAR 2018

2008-07-04T14:14:00.009-04:00

The Year 2018

The year is 2018.
(Ten years from now)

What a difference ten years makes!

Here are some statistics for the Year 2018 :

The average life expectancy is 39 years.

Most homes have a bathtub – but are not used for bathing anymore.

Most homes have a telephone, but they don’t work because as there’s no power to run them.

There are less than 5,000 cars on the roads and most travel by foot, bike or horse.

There are 5.7 million miles of paved roads – but most are full of ruts and overgrown with weeds.

The maximum speed limit in most cities is how fast one can walk or ride a bike or horse.

The tallest structure in the world is Burj Dubia in Arabia – and is still in operation as the Arabs’ electrical grid is still online – most buildings, however, are darkened shadows inhabited by the many homeless.

The average wage in 2018 is 22 cents per hour.

The average worker makes between $200 and $400 per year .

Accountants and dentists haven’t worked for years; veterinarians are beginning to eek out a living as people are using horses more; mechanical engineers earn about $1,000 per year and are busy creating a new infrastructure since the electrical grid went down.

100 percent of all births now take place at HOME .

Ninety percent of all doctors have a college education, but are a dwindling breed!
Instead, dire need is forcing “doctor grannies” to take their place – old women who are teaching themselves how to cure people.

Sugar cost ten dollars a pound.

Eggs are free for those who raise chickens in their backyards, and they sell'em at any price they've got the guts to ask.

Coffee is made from chicory and other home-grown plants since the shipping industry fell apart.

Most women only wash their hair once a month, and use rainwater, plants that produce a soapy foam or egg yolks for shampoo.

The Five leading causes of death are:

1. Starvation 2. Violent crime 3. Pneumonia and influenza

4. Malaria 5. Typhoid Fever.

The American flag still has 50 stars, but the Union fell apart after the grid went down.

The population of Las Vegas, Nevada, is only 30!!!!

BURNING UP FOOD IN OUR CARS

2008-07-04T11:21:00.002-04:00

News Item in Yahoo today:

"Biofuels have caused world food prices to increase by 75 percent, according to the findings of an unpublished World Bank report published in The Guardian newspaper on Friday. . . the report was finished in April but was not published to avoid embarrassing the US government . . . [w]ithout the increase in biofuels, global wheat and maize stocks would not have declined appreciably and price increases due to other factors would have been moderate . . ."

Think about that today when you use your E8 capable SUV filled with an ethanol-gas mix to run out to Kroger's to buy burgers, hot dogs, buns, chips, pop, beer and charcol for your 4th of July cookout 'cause you're causing people (especially children) to starve elsewhere just so you can keep your American way of life intact.

OIL HITS $146 & FREE GAS GIMMICK IN SEATTLE

2008-07-04T06:47:00.008-04:00

- Gas busted thru $146 per barrel yesterday - making new records is becoming common place now.

- Laughed when I watched analysts on PBS last night talking about the possible recession coming. Geez - blind as bats - don't want or are afraid to talk about the cataclysm right on our door step.

AND yesterday a radio station in Seattle gave away 10 gallons of gas free to the first 126 people who got to the gas station first. It caused a multi-block backup of cars. A couple of people's comments shows the delusional mentality here: "A gift from God." one lady says; and a dude's feelings "It put the ribs on the barbecue!"

All I saw was a symbol of the lineups sure to come at the pump. The only difference: civility was present - no fights broke out at the pump. But wait - that's a comin' - especially when getting gas becomes a contest for keeping those prescious little pusses plugged with paplum.

Have a Happy 4th - enjoy it - it's liable to be one of the last big celebrations of it we'll have for a very long time to come - if ever!

SAUDI KING: HIGH OIL PRICES GOT YA DOWN? GET OVER IT!

2008-07-02T15:53:00.005-04:00

News item today - King Abdullah of Arabia says: . . . to get used to rising oil prices . . . as he has nothing to do with it . . . but it's still cheaper compared to prices of alternative energy sources . . .

There it is from the horse's mouth folks! Essentially the King is telling you to get over it and get used to it; this is now normal.

Bloomberg Oil prices: $143.89 at 3:45 PM EDT.

Suggestion for you parents to personalize your holiday celebration this year: buy several boxes of sparklers; stick them all around the perimeter of your patio and wait for sundown. Then light'em all up and have the kiddies come watch their home-made Fourth of July Fireworks Celebration. It might very well be one of the last or even the last one they'll ever see in their lifetimes!

{{:o)-

VESPA CRASH!!

2008-07-01T22:24:00.024-04:00

Went out early this morning to get a haircut (the place I go to opens at 7 AM - near the corner of Lewis and Elenore. But decided to hit McD's on Sylvania Avenue (near Willy's Parkway) first for a Breakfast Burrito and juice).

It was a beyoootiful day for scootering too - low winds; crystal clear blue sky; a really bright sun and mild temperatures in the lower 70's.

Got there at about 6:40 and ordered; reached in my back pocket and discovered I'd left my wallet at home (had the checkbook though - the barber is a 'cardless' type and she only takes cash or check).

I walked out disheartened 'cause I knew I only had enough time to go home and come back to get the haircut. Breakfast would likely just be a quick fruit bar at the homestead.

BUT (yes, the fatal BUT) I decided to get the haircut first. So, I headed east on Sylvania; got into the left lane and arrived, without incident, at the well known intersection in this part of town known as 'Five Points' 'cause here several streets (Sylvania, Lewis, Phillips and some side street) join making five points to get in or out.

I did the little turn off Sylvania to go north on Lewis and had to STOP because the light was red. And boy what I faced there!!! The brilliant rising sun had just flashed out from behind a building caddy-corner in front of me bathing the whole intersection in dazzling and blinding sunlight.

Yep, I couldn't see to save my life - had to hold up my hand to partially block the sun so I could watch the traffic light turn green.

And to make the matters even more difficult - the cooler temperatures along with the heat from the sun were rapidly fogging up my goggles (which I wear under my full-face yellow helmet) as I sat motionless waiting for the light to turn green.

Well, as all lights do - it turned green. I released the brakes; turned my right wrist back to throttle up; pulled my legs in on the floor board of the Vespa and began to turn left and head north on Lewis.

When quite by surprise a compact car came out of the dazzling light right in front of me.

I smacked into its front left fender causing me to lurch forward bodily; then the Vespa scraped across down the length of the two driver's side doors and caught on something and I and it went down on our left sides on the road.

So, there I lay on westbound Sylvania Avenue with the scooter right top of my left leg while its engine continued to putter on.

I didn't detect any injuries; indeed I remember hitting the road with my left arm and the armor in it absorbing the shock. The boot on my left foot had absorbed any shock from the Vespa keeping my foot unharmed. Finally the knee pad I always wear caught the shock of both road and the Vespa's body thus protecting my leg from injury.

In seconds I pulled my leg out - with only a bit of minor resistance as the right lip of my boot caught on something on the scooter. I stood up; righted the scooter on its wheels; pulled it back on its stand and cut off the engine.

I looked around and then west on Sylvania Avenue for the other motorist and saw the compact car had stopped in the road. A young woman with blond hair got out; quickly walked over and asked me if I was alright. I told her I was.

She then told me she had just gotten her car (a Neon) and she had no insurance yet (not that it mattered to me as I was the offending party here). In fact she was on the way to her agent's office to have the insurance from a previous car transferred to her new one.

She told me her name was Aurora and that she was F#*#d because she not only had no proof of insurance, but she had no insurance at all. Aurora then popped out her cell making me think she was summoning the police.

Nope, nope, nope - she called someone - I don't know who: parents, hubby, boyfriend, girlfriend or whatever and she began to jabber away about the accident. I told her we had to call the cops and she said "Yeah and I'm F#*#d 'cause I got no insurance." and went back to jabbering on her cell.

Well, I have insurance and I couldn't wait for her to get out of wherever she 'd gone in her mind . So, I flipped out my own cell from my left pocket (undamaged by the spill) ; dialed 911 myself and summoned help - emphasizing to the operator that no one was hurt and that traffic was not being blocked. I was advised a unit was on the way.

By now Aurora had finished her phone conversation. So, I advised her the police had been summoned and she said again (now becoming a refrain) "Yeah and I'm F#*#d 'cause I got no insurance."

I apologized and told her I couldn't see because of the sun. She said she knew as she saw me shield my eyes from it. Then repeated her refrain and said she saw me move out, but as she had the right-of-way, assumed I was going to stop. And she repeated her refrain again. I apologized again, but she just kept repeating her refrain.

Well, I left her to herself and decided to pull the Vespa up on the little traffic island that's there at Five Points - to get it out of the way and prevent another incident.

And that seemed to be signal to her as she walked back to her car; got in it ; started it up and pulled on that little side street that becomes the fifth of the five points.

I called my boss and advised I'd had and emergency and might be out until noon.

And that's when I began to take stock of the damage.

Aurora's car's left front fender was all crinkled up. (Later she told the police officer there was a long scrape on her doors - but I couldn't see it from where I stood).

I turned to the Vespa - and cranked it up - no problems starting. I noticed the right-hand sideview mirror was loose, but not broken and that the handle bar was twisted a bit to the right. Nothing was leaking and the front of the body had a small dent with some scratches on the paint here and there elsewhere. Far as I could tell the Vespa had come off the winner in the contest. And most of important of all - it was still ride-able.

As I was checking over the scooter, the police unit arrived. Officer Steadman - Badge 100 (and related to the local Civil War hero - General Steadman who was the rock of the Rock of Chickamauga (General Thomas) by saving Thomas' right flank during the Battle of Chickamauga in 1864) began to question us both.

And he asked for license and proof of insurance. Of course mine was at the house and I told him so. Aurora responded with a some what modified version of her refrain about her insurance (dropping the F-word) and handed him her license.

He asked us what happened and I told him; Aurora remained silent.

He told me to stay where I was and he'd be back. He walked her over to her car and got her statement. Then she drove off.

Then he came and got my statement. Then he did what I knew he was going to do: he wrote out a citation. However, he surprised me with kindness - he only cited me for 'red light'; warned me about the lack license and proof of insurance (the latter of which he decided to assume I had); advised he was not going to make me appear in court and that I could pay the fine online at the Court's website instead. He asked if my scooter was ride-able (and I advised it was). He let me go with a caution to be careful and that the crash report would be available on line in a day or two.

So, that was that! I pushed the Vespa off its stand; and, while holding the handle bars, push-ran it south, across Sylvania Avenue, to the same side-street where Aurora had parked her Neon. Then I put it up on its stand by the curb; got out the adjustable wrench I always carry; tightened up the right mirror and checked the other (it was loose too). Fired up the Vespa and rode it on to a small parking lot. Did a few turns in it to see how it felt. Pointed it out to the street and headed south to Berdan thence westward, via Willys Parkway-Pioneer-Central Ave, back home to get the license.

I arrived at my abode without incident and got my license. Went to the PC and submitted my claim to Progressive. Went to the Court's website and paid my $103.00 fine. Then I left the house; locked it up; hopped on the Vespa; fired it up and headed west for Vespa of Toledo for assistance in straightening out the handle bar and getting a damage estimate.

I arrived there without incident; advised Mike Kookoothe, the owner of the accident and asked for an eye-ball estimate. He took one look at the LX and said "Man, what a tough bike!" He fixed the handle bar; replaced a broken off reflector and promised to work up an estimate of the damage - he assumed about $250.00 - not even enough to get past a standard deductible.

So, that's my Vespa Crash! This was the second accident on a motor scooter. The first was in July of 2006 when I still owned my 2005 Yamaha Vino 125. I hit a rut on a side street then and applied the front brake resulting in being thrown over the handle bars. The Vino was damaged but ride-able home. The police were never involved. And it spent about a month in the shop waiting for parts.

I don't think the Vino would have survived this crash well. I am impressed by the Vespa and am all the more convinced that I am NOT over dressed with the safety gear. In fact it is certain had I been dressed in street clothes alone I'd be scraped and bruised up right now.

And as for Aurora - I do have the impression that had she been at fault she'd have taken off in a flash leaving me laying in the road - not caring if I was alive or dead - and with only a single thought coursing through her mind "I'm F#*#d 'cause I got no insurance!"

Well, I'll tell ya - given that attitude - $7.00 per gallon can't come too soon for me!!**

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**Curious about this statement? Many economic analysts are predicting that $7.00 per gallon will be the breaking point for most working class folks. The assumption is that at $7.00 per gallon these folks, en masse, will begin shunning use of their cars. NOW, unless your brain is completely in the fog, I think you know what I'm getting at here - right? Or must I make it 'lappy?'

PRICEY PETROL BOON FOR BIRDIES, BEES 'N BEASTIES

2008-07-01T15:07:00.007-04:00

Kind of hard to believe, but the Toledo Blade got it right again when they published an article today by everbody's favorite nature boy, Steve Pollick. I've liked Steve's scrawlings for a long time - I do remember his reflection on a pin oak. And I know he's weighed in, time and again, on the effect of fouling our local environment with fossil fuels. But this article is a beaut! As he said - at least there's one good thing coming out the ever increasing cost of using a car.

Here's the link: Steep prices for fuel lead to good news for wildlife

Confidential to Steve: what you are driving these days? Hope it's EI (energy efficient) and LC (low carbon). Or need I ask?

Thanks for the great article, man! Highly appreciated! Didn't mean to offend by the 'tongue-in-cheek'!

RE-TRAINING OURSELVES

2008-07-01T15:00:00.003-04:00

Interesting editorial in the Toledo today - the need to redo one major element of mass transit: trains. I whole heartedly recommend it.

Here's the link: RETRAINING AMERCIA

But . . . (you know I just had to put in my 'but') - where was this article 10 years ago when we needed it? My! Did Johnnie say something then? I sure don't 'member it. Seems he was promoting Jeeps then.

ANOTHER RECORD; BLOGGER ADVOCATES GAS RATIONING

2008-06-30T08:27:00.005-04:00

Well the ever upward trend went even higher. Oil per barrel nearly got to $144 per barrel reaching $143.91 before going back in the $142's.

OF NOTE TODAY:

Due to matters I read at Peak Oil: Life After the Crash, this blogger has decided that it's time to call for gas rationing. With information I received there that the national economy could not sustain $10.00 per gallon and the belief that we are not far off from that and further after watching you all out there refusing to change your ways and to understand that our way of life MUST change too I am of the opinion that it MUST before forced.

For the sake of our homeland's survival I am for a plan that limits gasoline to 15 gallons per week per household. Yes, folks, that's tough love, but I see no other way around this. We've simply got to get as many personal automobiles off the roads ASAP before it's too late. So, I am really sorry for you 5 car families who live out in the 'Burbs. My advice: get motor scooters or bicycles for the other 4 or car-pool and begin to work on dumping the house and moving back in the big city.

Of course, not to worry here - there's no politician currently out there with the courage and will to do what has to be done - not Barak, not John and certainly NOT W (whose house by the way has long been off the grid with armed guards, courtesy of the taxpayers, protecting it).

Nevertheless I stand by what I've written. I do hope somebody listens whose has the power to make it happen.

SHUNNING THE CAR BY 2010 OR SOONER

2008-06-28T19:44:00.003-04:00

I know for certain hardly anyone is reading this blog. Yet I still can't refrain from posting here.

Today I found, courtesy of the website Life After the Crash a reference to an article in the Wall Street Journal which essentially says we Americans are about two years away from becoming the car shunners a lot of Eurpoeans already are. Here's the article in full:

June 26, 2008, 11:12 am
Oil Shock: Analyst Predicts $7 Gas, “Mass Exodus” of U.S. Cars
Posted by Keith Johnson

Oil at $135? That was just the opening skirmish in the “peak oil” wars. The latest smart money? $200 oil in 2010, with gasoline at $7 a gallon. And that is going to turn Americans into car-shunning Europeans once and for all—poor Americans, at least.

That’s the latest gloomy forecast from Jeff Rubin at Canadian brokerage CIBC World Markets, who just a few months ago figured $200 oil would be a thing of the distant future—like 2012.

Mr. Rubin laughs off recent attempts to take the steam out of global oil markets. Saudi production promises of 200,000 barrels a day doesn’t dent the 4 million barrel-per-day decline from aging fields every year, for starters. And it will just be “gobbled up” by increasing domestic consumption in Saudi Arabia, like other oil-producing countries that subsidize fuel.

So what about China’s flirtation with market reality by unwinding some fuel subsidies? No luck in curbing demand or prices, either. Not only does China’s recent move translate into $3.25 a gallon gas—still a steal, relatively speaking—it’s given fresh legs to beleaguered Chinese refiners who’ve been operating in the red, thanks to Chinese price controls. So now they are producing even more gasoline and fueling even more cars than they were before. The upshot?

Over the next four years, we are likely to witness the greatest mass exodus of vehicles off America’s highways in history. By 2012, there should be some 10 million fewer vehicles on American roadways than there are today—a decline that dwarfs all previous adjustments including those during the two OPEC oil shocks.

And who will be parking their cars? The 57 million American households that have both cars and access to something resembling public transit. Gasoline at $7 begins to approach prices Europeans have paid for years, meaning that chunk of America “will start to act more and more like Europeans,” Mr. Rubin says. Not soccer moms in a minivan—soccer fans, searching for tokens:

Our analysis suggests that about half of the number of cars coming off the road in the next four years will be from low income households who have access to public transit. At their current driving habits, filling up the tank will have risen from about 7% of their income to 20%, an increase that will see many start taking the bus.

Gas prices already appear to be reshaping suburbia. But what Mr. Rubin is predicting is a far bigger shock to the American system. Europe has had decades to develop a society based on expensive energy. What will happen if Americans suddenly are forced to shoulder European-style energy prices — but without the European-style society to cope with them?

The link to the article is here:

http://blogs.wsj.com/environmentalcapital/2008/06/26/oil-shock-analyst-predicts-7-gas-mass-exodus-of-us-cars/

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So, what will happen if Americans suddenly are forced to shoulder European-style energy prices?

Here's one answer to help Americans get ready:

http://www.vespausa.com/index.cfm

OIL BUSTS ANOTHER RECORD - BLOWS PAST $140

2008-06-27T11:36:00.004-04:00

Just saw the news at Bloomberg - oil has blown past $140.00 per barrel, folks! Right now it's at 141.21. But Bloomberg looks for a fall next week on rising stockpiles and demand drop (that's you and me using less).

Don't be fooled by the fall - it's gonna keep on climbing - that's for certain.

Hey maybe my prayers are being heard!!

UPDATE (2:20 PM EDT) - OIL NOW AT $142.52 PER BARREL!

GAS GUZZLER GASHES GRUNTS & DAVE YONKE RESPONDS

2008-06-27T08:21:00.013-04:00

Well I saw today's Toledo Blade. 2,000 Jeep workers (the grunts) are being laid-off by Chrysler due to sluggish sales of their gas guzzling products - and in particular the Jeep Nitro which has done lived up to its namesake (nitroglycerin) and blown these working class folks out of the water - at least for now.

Years ago I said at a web page I created: "JEEP SAVED! CARTY TAKES CREDIT! CARTY SAVED! GIVE JEEP UNLIMITED CREDIT!". Well Carty's been saved twice. Time for the Jeepsters to cash in on that credit they are due. I wonder will the Fink pay up?

So, obviously I don't sympathize with either party here. In 1996 I saw 'em going down the gas guzzler line and warned 'em, but rolling in the prosperity of the 90's - really excrement - they blew people like me off. Now that they're covered in it I have to wonder - what's next?

Maybe we go to war and seize the oil fields? OH! (give me a 'Curly Slap') - we're already at war (in Iraq) over oil. It's just a short hop over to Arabia to 'protect' them from their enemies. And is only short hop and skip down south in Latin America to 'free' them folks in Venezuela from their communist oppressors".

As Colonel Potter used to say in M*A*S*H: "Horsey hockey!" If anything like these happens you can bet it's to get control of oil NOT to make the world safe for Democracy and freedom lovers.

---------------

Dave Yonke responded to my earlier post and I decided, after some thought, to put my response here.

First - let me stand corrected on your ride Dave. I do recall now seeing you in May of last year at the SNAP press conference at Mud Hens Field (that's what I prefer to call it) with Claudia Vercellotti over the Msgr. Schmidt sign. You were in a Civic. So - cancel the cuss about the SUV - unless of course there happens to be an SUV some place in your life or the lives of your loved ones in which case I take it all back.

As for your thoughts on scooter riding: I am truly sorry about your friend and his untimely death on a motorcycle after 30 years of riding. It's very tragic and, for course I don't know all the circumstances of the accident. However, I carefully have watched the Biker boys 'n girls though for the nearly three years I've been on the scooter and I do believe that their emphasis on 'cool' and their hubris helps to contribute to a lot of the deaths that happens on two wheeled motorized vehicles. I don't see many with proper safety gear on. I see also beautiful babes on crotch rockets hugging their men while traveling in excess of 40 miles an hour - and all they have on is a sexy tank-top, flips and short-shorts with their long beautiful hair blowing in the wind. If they should fall - - well I am sure you can get the picture.

I wear the gear - virtually all that can be - as I've stated time and again in this blog and I don't try to break any land speed records on the scooter, either. A scooter is a conservative ride and to make it anything else to is to truly flirt with death.

Of course you may say I'm doing that anyhow as it doesn't matter what one has on - it's still just much easier to get killed on a machine with your whole body so exposed. And I am well aware that your friend, even though he may have been dressed up like one of the armored knights of old, still died in the end. Experience and protective gear only allay the risk not eliminate it.

But ya still can't past the fact that millions and millions of people in Europe and Asia ride scooters. In fact you can't swing the proverbial 'dead-cat' on any street in any city in those places any time of day without smacking a scooter rider. It's what does the job. We are just so into the car culture - it's very hard for us get out of it.

You don't have to join the growing number of scooter riders to be an example, Dave. But the Civic at 40 mpg just ain't good enough for what our nation needs. And I don't think getting a hybrid is the answer either. You got a good job at the Blade. Why not get the NMG (No-More-Gas) car? It's all electric. It's made in America (Indiana) and you can plug it in at home to charge it up. You can still reserve the Civic for the longer rides you need to take as a journalist and still help to give an example to our people. OH, I just remembered, the NMG (a three-wheeled car) is rated as a motorcycle in Ohio. I guess that nixes that.

I don't know what you can do then, Dave, except pray for lower gas prices - but then you have my prayers asking for the exact opposite. Whose gonna win? Maybe nobody. As Abe Lincoln said in his second inaugural address on the cause of the Civil War " The Almighty had his own purposes". And I have faith in that in this case and and believe they will also be accomplished no matter what we poor humans say or do. We will all be changed because of it - some for the better and some for the worse. I guess you and I can just hope that we end up in the good crowd.

PS: If you do happen to see me in your lane in front of you on the Vespa (I'm kind of hard to miss with all the yellow on), have a care and if your cell happens to go off at the same moment you spy me - let'er ring until I'm in your review mirror. Maybe you'd do that anyway, but every one of us who carries a cell phone can be still tempted to pick-it up while driving.

Dave Yonke - Gas Prices - Vespa Riding - an Open Request

2008-06-25T14:15:00.007-04:00

Just noticed that today Dave Yonke of the Toledo Blade in his Blog Keywords made a comment about the high price of gas followed by a wistful reference to wishing he could be riding a Vespa instead.

Here's the blog: Gas Prices and Holidays

Here's the quote I take issue with:

Sigh. Wish we had better alternatives in the United States. I would ride a Vespa scooter or even a bicycle to work when the weather is OK if there were separate lanes. But it's far too dangerous out there on the main roads with all the crazy car, SUV, and pickup drivers distracted by cell phones, screaming babies and spilled coffee.

Mr. Yonke . . . I've started riding a motor scooter on September 16, 2005 (it was a 2005 Yamaha Vino 125) - just a few weeks after Hurricane Katrina hit and days after I paid $3.20/gallon for gas at a local station. I saw the handwriting on the wall then. And since then, I've put up with the crazy car drivers for almost almost three years now. As examples - I been pursued by one angry Jeep Liberty owner simply because he wanted me in front instead of behind him on the road; I've been tailgated by others who didn't like my presence on the road and a ticked off guy in a Hummer told me to "Take it on the sidewalk." I've kept going despite all of that because I know where things are going.

I changed my ride at the end of July last year to a 2007 Vespa LX150 because it has better pick-up and handles Toledo's bumpy roads much better. So far I've ridden it not only around Toledo, but also to Maumee, Sylvania, Oregon, Lambertville, Bowling Green, Archbold and Fremont. I expect to go even farther in the future. It was and continues to be an eyeopening and horizon broadening experience.

Risk? Certainly, but if it isn't taken; if an example is not set, change will be long, hard and expensive in coming. I obviously won't effect (yes, I mean effect not affect) much change - I'm a nobody at the least and irritant at the worst to most folks.

However, you, sir, as member of the media, along with your colleagues, can have lots of influence. I assert it is time now for all of you to set such an example. Drop your SUV and try to ride a scooter. And just don't be "Sunshine soldier" either, but that type that's willing to do it in the cold and rain too.

GAS PAINS! OIL @ $136.93

2008-06-23T14:54:00.004-04:00

Oil currently stands at $136.93 per barrel. It's giving people gas pains - as seen in this Opus strip by Berkely Breathed. Notice the price on the pump. $3.89! This strip was published in October of 2006. Yet, how prophetic it is and was - except the price of gas has long blown past the pump price here.

THE BLADE GET'S IT RIGHT - FOR NOW

2008-06-22T14:41:00.002-04:00

Quote from today's editorial section Drilling for Pottage:

"Mr. Bush got it right in the first place: America is addicted to oil. To treat an addiction, you don't seek a cheaper fix when the drug becomes too expensive. You make a change in your life. A true leader would see this; that person would heed the ancient wisdom that you don't sell your birthright for a mess of pottage, which is what lifting the oil drilling bans promise to be".

Mr. Bush didn't really get it right - he just mimiced what he heard elsewhere. But no matter as borrowing (or plagiarizing) the words of others is standard for politicos. The point is still made and the point is right on (just like JFK did in 1961 with his "Ask not" speech which was borrowed and made his own).

What the Blade got right was the italicized part and especially the bolded/italicized part - the response to the current crisis with oil is to change your life. Johnny Block's right, yes, but I strongly doubt people will listen.

They still want their big cars and their American Dream. If Mr. Bush or Mr. McCain can promise lower gas prices by banging up the environment - people will likely go for it. If Mr Obama and the Dems can promise it by nationalizing the oil companies - people will likely go for it.

What they won't go for is doing what ought to be done - dumping the big cars, getting of out the suburbs and exurbs and drastically changing the way they live (meaning to live a simpler life) before it's too late.

Various observations

2008-06-20T08:20:00.006-04:00

1. Politician Latta said at meeting recently that oil use is going to be a reality for the next 25 years!

COMMENT: SCARY! This guy is leading us? How will we ever change with "Ol' Head-in-the-Sand" in Washington?

2. China raises gas prices - oil prices drop.

COMMENT: Great! Glad to see 'em getting the message. Didn't help though - gas in one place I buy it went for $3.819 to $4.099 within two days.

3. Article in today's Blade: people praying and pleadin' for pump prices to plummet.

COMMENT: DESPERATION! Frankly it can't get to $5.00/gallon fast enough for me. So, I pray that pump prices push and pummel the petition to pieces. Maybe my prayer will cancel theirs. Them folks don't get it - if God does what they ask it ain't gonna be mercy - but punishment.

4. Flooding in the the Midwest Mississipi caused by global warming - several news outlets pointed this out today.

COMMENT: And that's why this prayer for relief at the pump is so silly. It isn't just about pump prices; it also about the whole world. We need to get out of the gas guzzlers and start being frugal. This well help the environment - maybe put a buffer on what we've already done. So, the higher the prices the better for us all in the end.

5. TARTA talks about going solar to run buses!

COMMENT: FAN-TAS-TIC!! Finally maybe somebody's getting the message that the public transportation has got to lose the internal combustion based people movers.

BIG FIRE IN THE NORTH SEA - OIL IS UP TODAY; NO TROPICAL CYCLONES YET

2008-06-16T09:11:00.008-04:00

According to Bloomberg, there was a big fire on a drilling platform yesterday in the North Sea causing operations there to be suspended. So, oil's fragile price, responding to this disaster and a retreat of the dollar, rose.

No sign of tropical cyclone activity in the Caribbean Sea or Gulf of Mexico, but for this time of year, that's not unusual. There's a couple of tropical waves there, but, according to the National Hurricane Center nothing to trouble yourself about (darn!).

As of this hour, the price for a barrel of oil stood at $136.21.

We'll see how it does by the end of the day.

VESPA SUNDAY RIDE TO FREMONT - PART III

2008-06-15T15:20:00.008-04:00

This is Part III of my Sunday Vespa Ride to Fremont on Sunday, June 8, 2008.

After my encounter with the middle-aged lady in her gargantuan gas guzzler, it was time for a little recreating. In addition to this ride to find out if I could really do it on major roads with just a 150 cc engine I also came down to engage in my hobby: geocaching. And what is that?

Well basically it's like a fancy treasure hunt - using a GPS device. Millions of American do it. Info. on this sport can be found at www.geocaching.com. Basically one looks for 'caches' via coordinates found at the website and then ya hunt them down - via a road trip. The idea, after ya find the cache, is to sign a log contained in it and then go to the website, afterwards, and enter the fact ya found it and make some comments. Cache containers can be as small as a camouflaged pill bottle, a key holder, a small Tupperware box or even a bucket. The bigger ones give ya the opportunity to take a prize and leave a prize (usually little trinkets of some sort). Caches can be hidden in all kinds of places. They have to be - to keep them safe from the infamous "Muggles" - that's anyone else not involved in the sport.

Prior to leaving home I had already used the site to ascertain if there was one here at Spiegel Grove and also checked for one in Bowling Green - for the return trip. There was caches on both counts. Spiegel Grove has Rutherford's Treasure. B.G. had several, but I chose to do Oak Park Cemetery which is surrounded by the B.G.U's campus.

I proceeded with caching. I popped in the coord's off the computer print out I had. This particular cache is what we cachers call a multi -meaning a several stage cache - in which I had to find the next set of coord's by clues offered at each successive find and to get clues for final one. Well as one might guess, Rutherford's Treasure has mostly either a Civil War or martial theme. I had to wander to the Center's five gated entrances and take a clue from the historical plates posted there to get the final coord's. The final coord's took me past the final resting place of General Hayes, his wife, one of his sons and his wife. I paid my respects at the tomb of the ex-President who, along with his son were Medal of Honor winners.

Then it was just short walk where, within a few minutes, I found the cache - a camouflaged Tupperware box placed in the hollowed out part of an old tree which also appeared to double as a fox's temporary shelter from the rains (not currently occupied though the fox's aroma was clearly present). So, this short adventure was over - I signed the log - exchanged some trinkets and then walked over to the Center itself to buy a souvenir.

I was hot though, so I stopped and sat at bench to rest and enjoy the quiet. It was marvelous - so peaceful. I imagine ol' Rutherford must have loved his little constitutions around here while he lived.

The Center was not here in the early 70's - or rather it wasn't like this. Then it was a little gift shop in the old mansion which contained some memorabilia of General Hayes. Now the place was a full-fledged museum with a whole section dedicated to the General. I entered and looked around a bit for a souvenir and engaged the man and woman who manned it in a conversation regarding the nearest eateries. They gave me directions. And then I noticed the museum.

I was a bit enthralled by it and began to wonder around - totally oblivious to a sign indicating one had to pay to enter. I walked in and viewed the historical things including a section summarizing the General's life in pictures.

I came out and the woman asked if I paid - neither person remembered to charge me as my request for directions had totally distracted them. I was a bit embarrassed so I immediately paid the $5 nominal fee. I took another 10 minutes to find a souvenir - a commemorative coin of President Hayes. I purchased it. Thanked the folks and left the Center.

I made a bee-line for the Vespa and commenced mounting procedures. I opened up the trunk and saddle; got out and donned my armored jacket (whose clip on thermometer showed an air temperature of 90), goggles, leather gloves, knee pads and of course full-face helmet. I closed both the saddle and trunk. and started the Vespa - did a bit of a preflight to make sure the turn signals, brake lights, brakes and horn worked. Then stepped through the foot platform; sat down on the saddle; pushed it off its stand; looked left and right; gave one final glare at the RV/SUV combo (still chugging along with AC on full); turned the throttle back; got some momentum going; pulled in and put my feet on the platform and I was off.