Wednesday, July 30, 2008

OIL PRICES CONTINUES TO DROP - IS THIS 'DEMAND DESTRUCTION'?


Bloomberg says that the price of oil is hovering at or just below $122.00 per barrel today. This is a record $15.00 drop in price since the high of about $145.00. Sounds good doesn't? I mean here in Toledo we're paying around $3.599 per gallon. Many folks are really breathing easy after feeling parboiled when the prices hit $4.199. But is this really good?

Bloomberg had an article by Grant Smith in which the term demand destruction was used in reference to the price of oil. Demand destruction is a buzz word used by peak oil advocates/doomsayers to illustrate that Armageddon is right around the corner - that the world is right on the verge of the abyss and about to tumble in.

Here's the article if you want to read it:

Crude Oil Falls From 12 Week-Low on U.S. Fuel Demand Concern

And here from the Energy Bulletin website is good explanation of demand destruction which I placed at the end of the very first entry in this blog in May of last year (2007):

Demand Destruction: who gets destroyed?

And that is the question - who does get destroyed? Just the demand (for gasoline) or is this a sign that everything is sure to fall apart soon and it's time to 'head from them thar hills loaded for bear'? In others words: is it the demand for oil that gets destroyed or do people - in particular the poor - because the drop in demand is sudden, so swift that it causes havoc?

I don't have an answer for that. Today it's 77 degrees and humid and likely to stay very hot and humid for the next eight weeks. There's no threats in the tropics at this time - it appears to have quieted down. So, the weather is no concern for anyone. And further those out there living from day-to-day, and paycheck-to-paycheck don't really want to think about that tomorrow as this today has enough problems.

The answer, thus, is likely to come at the meteorological autumnal transition which will occur some time in late October or early November when it will still be humid but also cold, rainy and miserable - when there's demand for heat in the northern states. Then that tomorrow will becomes this today - and right around the time for the presidential election.

Demand destruction will be of great interest to all I am sure at that time.

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